The decision of the US Expature Donald Trump to transfer Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine and other weapons has become the most notable military promise by Washington in the last year. According to The Wall Street Journal, it is a package of supply up to $ 10 billion. But, according to analysts, the main question is not in promises, but in time.
Russia attacks Ukraine mainly with drones and missiles, forcing the Ukrainian command to spend the remains of available air defense. The Pentagon is warned: the purpose of the Russian Federation is to exhaust the protection before the beginning of the new offensive at the end of summer or autumn.
" In order for the US assistance to really change the course of events, it should come this summer ," said Selesto Wallander, a representative of the US Defense Ministry.
However, WSJ recognizes that in the current environment, even such a decisive political decision, as Trump, may not save the situation if the supply is delayed again. Even allies in Europe are in no hurry to transfer their existing systems - they are waiting for new supplies from the United States. This means that Ukraine risks staying without cover for the moon.
Analysts call to revise the order of Patriot distribution. Priority should be for Ukraine, even if other US allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia or Japan, will have to wait a little. It was this scenario that could change the situation at the front and make Putin review his plans.
“ If Europeans provide Ukraine with their existing systems and then get new - it will help. But if they wait for new ones and only then they will pass the old ones - will be too late, ” - explains Christina Berzin from the Marshall Foundation.
Another idea is to supply aircraft from the conveyor directly to Ukraine. But such a step will inevitably cause geopolitical tension: the queue of orders for Patriot in the United States - painted for years.
The key threat to Ukraine is now not only the number of air defense systems, but the speed of delivery. If Ukraine does not receive at least a few Patriot batteries by the end of the summer, autumn massive missile attacks can leave strategic objects of the country without cover.
Trump's decision is unprecedented in political scale. But in the conditions of war they weigh not words, but logistics.
