2024: The global average temperature exceeds the 1.5°C threshold for the first time

In 2024, the world faced an alarming new reality: the average global temperature exceeded the threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time in history. This record was the result of a combination of anthropogenic climate change and the natural El Niño climate phenomenon, which significantly increased warming.

The average temperature has passed the symbolic limit, which was established by the Paris Agreement on combating climate change. The year 2024 was marked by mega forest fires in South America, Canada and Europe, drought in the Amazon and Pantanal, floods in the Sahara and devastating hurricanes in the USA.

Broadcast by Globo and New Scientist.

The new data confirmed that 2024 was the first calendar year in which average temperatures exceeded the critical threshold of 1.5°C. Last year was recognized as the hottest in the history of mankind, according to the conclusion of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

EU Copernicus Meteorological Service:

2024 was the warmest year since scientific observations began in 1850.

The European Union's climate change service Copernicus has temperature data for 2024: an excess of 1.6 °C was recorded compared to pre-industrial levels; the 2024 temperature is also estimated to be 0.12 °C above the 2023 record.

What is the reason for the temperature jump

Scientists agree that the jump in temperature was caused mainly by continued anthropogenic climate change and the El Niño weather phenomenon, which tends to increase global temperatures. But the scale and duration of the heatwave shocked many experts who expected temperatures to drop after El Niño ends in May 2024. Instead, it remained at record levels for the rest of the year.

According to analytical data, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane continued to rise and reached record annual levels in 2024 of 422 parts per million (ppm) and 1,897 parts per billion (ppb), respectively.

Carbon dioxide concentrations in 2024 were 2.9 ppm higher than in 2023, and methane concentrations were 3 ppm higher.

The world's oceans are said to have suffered the most as sea surface temperatures remained at record levels for most of 2024, damaging marine ecosystems.

The year was accompanied by extreme weather conditions on land: intense heat, a sharp reduction in polar ice caps, deadly floods and uncontrolled forest fires.

All continents broke records.

The center of South America and Mexico was boiling like never before

says climatologist José Marengo, a researcher in Latin America and the Caribbean who is preparing a chapter on Latin America for the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 2024 report.

Mega-wildfires like the one currently burning in Hollywood have burned parts of South America, Canada and Europe. The Amazon and the Pantanal have dried up. The Sahara was flooded. Floods in Brazil and Spain inundated cities.

- writes Globo.

"This has been a year where the effects of climate change are being felt across the planet," said David King, former chief scientific adviser to the UK government and founder of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group.

Technically, the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting warming to below 1.5°C is calculated based on a 20-year average, so one year exceeding the threshold does not constitute a formal breach of the goal. But given the pace of warming in recent years, many scientists argue that the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement is already out of reach.

At the COP29 summit, the EU, the US and other developed countries agreed to increase funding for climate action to $300 billion annually by 2035. A previous offer of $250 billion was rejected as insufficient.

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