This is what military analyst Dara Massikot believes in an article for Foreign Affairs.
A breakthrough of the Russian Federation at the front becomes "quite probable" due to the weak replenishment of Ukraine in ammunition and personnel.
Kyiv is now in the same crisis as Russia after the first failures in Ukraine. But unlike Russia, Kyiv and the West were unable to mobilize their military industry and prepare large reserves.
In the Russian Federation, there are now "very few reasons not to continue the offensive." There are few places left in the Armed Forces that are as well protected as Avdiyivka, "which means that in the future the Russian offensive can take place more easily."
The Russians are intensifying the pressure, trying to make it to the spring off-road. They also take advantage of the lack of shells and fortifications in the Armed Forces, attacking before the Ukrainians have time to dig in.
"This is a bad sign for Ukraine and its supporters. These offensives would likely not have been approved if the Kremlin had been uncertain about its prospects for success. In other words, Russia is predicting new victories on the battlefield," Massicot writes.
She considers the strategy of the Russian Federation as "carrying out multi-pronged attacks with the aim of exhausting Ukrainian forces." In her opinion, the current goals of the Russian Federation are to reach Pokrovsk in Donetsk region, "to secure key road and railway networks" and to attack the Armed Forces near Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.
Also, Russian troops will most likely try to advance in the Zaporizhzhia region in order to cancel the results of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Orichov area, and in the north the Russian Federation will try to get closer to Kupyansk.
At the same time, the analyst considers it unlikely that the Russian Federation will try to capture the Kharkiv region this year. For this, according to Massikot, the Russians will need to form a reserve of up to 100,000 people.
Ukraine, in addition to urgent infusions of Western aid and the construction of fortifications, needs to increase recruitment into the army. "Unfortunately, finding more soldiers will likely require an unpopular mobilization," Massicot writes.
