The full-scale war has radically changed the demographic situation in Ukraine. According to Frontliner, the population has decreased by at least 10 million in two and a half years. This is the result of mass migration, high mortality, a sharp decline in the birth rate, and an aging society.
At the beginning of 2022, over 40 million people lived in Ukraine (excluding Crimea). As of mid-2024, about 35.8 million remained, of which 31.1 million were in government-controlled territory.
Mass migration
The main reason for the reduction was emigration. About 5 million Ukrainians are currently abroad, mainly in EU countries. Most of them are in Poland, Germany, the Czech Republic, Italy and Spain. The longer the war lasts, the less chance they have of returning, especially for men of draft age.
The eastern and southern regions of Ukraine have been significantly emptied. Millions have left Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Kharkiv regions. The west and center of the country have received many displaced people, but there is also an outflow of people abroad.
Losses and mortality
There are no official statistics on the number of dead, but tens of thousands of military and thousands of civilian victims are estimated. In addition, the overall mortality rate has increased due to the weakening of the medical system, stress, and exacerbation of chronic diseases.
Birth rate at historic low
In 2023, about 180,000 children were born in Ukraine, the lowest figure in modern history. The main reasons include the threat of war, economic problems, and uncertainty about the future.
Currently, only 15% of the population is children, while 27% are people aged 60+. Ukraine is aging rapidly, and new generations are becoming increasingly fewer.
Will a demographic strategy stop the trend?
In late 2024, the government adopted the Demographic Development Strategy until 2040 and the Action Plan for 2024–2027. However, there are no noticeable results yet. According to forecasts, the country's population could decrease to 29 million by 2041.
However, the opposite scenario is also possible - a gradual recovery, but only if the war ends, the economy recovers, and large-scale reconstruction programs are implemented.
