Ukraine, without a doubt, faces complex challenges in the context of its conflict with Russia. One of the possible strategies for strengthening one's own defense, which is actively discussed, is the possibility of creating one's own nuclear weapons. This question raises many questions - both technical and real. What is the probability that Ukraine will be able to develop a nuclear bomb? And can it really affect the situation in the war with Russia?
Many foreign politicians have begun to forget about the threat posed by nuclear weapons, State Duma deputy from the ruling United Russia party Andriy Kolesnyk said this weekend and offered to remind the world of this danger by detonating a nuclear bomb somewhere on the territory of the Russian Federation.
Last year, the idea of detonating a nuclear bomb "somewhere over Siberia" was also expressed by the head of RT, Margarita Simonyan. And in mid-August, the propaganda agency "RIA Novosti", referring to an anonymous source, spread information about the alleged preparation of an attack by Ukraine on nuclear power plants in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation (the city of Kurchatov) and the occupied Zaporizhzhia region (in Energodar). Is the West still afraid of the "Russian horror" and what does Ukraine have to do with it, asked an expert on security issues, the TV channel "Nastoyastchee vremya", created by Radio Liberty with the participation of the Voice of America.
Ukraine may start producing its own nuclear weapons if it does not receive a guarantee of membership in NATO. This was stated by Oleg Rybachuk, the former Vice Prime Minister for European Integration of Ukraine.
«In particular, I drew attention to one article by a well-known Western expert who says that if Ukraine does not receive a guarantee of membership in NATO, the only alternative for it will be the production of nuclear weapons. In this article, he says that compared to any other country, Ukraine is the closest to the ability to develop its own nuclear weapons - this is the presence of human personnel, this is both technology and uranium reserves. And this is the first time serious international experts have stated, I think that this is one of the factors that will, among other things, contribute to the faster induction of any team, any American president.
Therefore, if we are left without elections, as a result of Russian aggression, we will be convinced that in fact the West and NATO are unable to fulfill their obligations to Ukraine, we will increase the production of our own weapons. And most likely, we can technically and realistically begin the production of our own nuclear weapons, somewhat reminiscent of Israel, which said that Israel does not have nuclear weapons, but if necessary, we will launch an appropriate nuclear strike against the aggressors. Rybachuk said.
Oleksiy Izhak, an expert on international security, believes that talks about Ukraine's creation of its own nuclear weapons are "very theoretical."
Disposal of the Tu-22 strategic bomber at the military airfield near Poltava, November 2002. The plane was destroyed as part of commitments to abandon nuclear weapons
"No one in Ukraine will dare, if such a decision is made, to do it secretly, it requires consultation," Izhak emphasized on the air of the "Nastojachee Vremya" TV channel.
"Yes, indeed, making a nuclear bomb in the modern world does not require a lot of intelligence. And the fact that most countries do not do this is a political choice," he believes.
According to an expert on international security, the possession of nuclear weapons "does not paralyze the victim." Izhak reminds that the Kremlin has repeatedly hinted that if something goes wrong, nuclear weapons will be used. "Did it deprive Ukraine of the ability to resist? No, - stresses Izhak. - I think the same considerations can be made regarding Russia: what is needed to bring Putin to the negotiating table? I think it's hardly a nuclear bomb.
"All these conversations about the fact that the Budapest Memorandum has been violated are important only in the aspect that the nuclear countries react very nervously to this," the expert notes. - Because the fundamental idea of the end of the Cold War, when it is possible to disarm, it will be safe, has really been violated."
At a military base near Khmelnytskyi, workers remove the warhead of a Soviet-era SS-19 nuclear missile from a mine, preparing it for shipment to Russia, handing over the last 40 nuclear warheads to Russia. April 1995
Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum in 1994, giving up Soviet nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, Great Britain and the United States. 20 years later - in 2014 - Moscow violated this agreement by annexing the Crimean peninsula and provoking hostilities in Donbas.
Dismantling the SS-19 ballistic missile at the base in the village of Vakulenchuk, Zhytomyr Region, December 24, 1997. AP photo
And five days before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine - in February 2022 - at the Munich Security Conference, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi reminded that Kyiv received security guarantees for abandoning the world's third largest nuclear potential. But they don't work.
"We don't have these weapons, we don't have security either. There is no part of the territory of our state, he emphasized.
The Russian Federation launches the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile from Plesetsk in northwestern Russia. Russian leader Putin has warned that he will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons to repel Ukraine's attempt to regain control over the occupied regions. April 2022
In October 2022, then Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu held talks with colleagues from Turkey, France, Great Britain and the United States. As the Russian press wrote, he called them to report the news that Ukraine was preparing a provocation on its territory using a "dirty bomb." In Ukraine, Shoigu's statements were called lies. International security expert Oleksiy Izhak says that it was one of the Kremlin's "nuclear horrors".
"This is an ordinary explosive, an ordinary bomb, a large amount of TNT and hexane mixed with spent nuclear fuel. And it causes not only destruction, but also contamination, similar to Chernobyl, - explains the expert. - In general, it is difficult to do. To open these canisters, firstly, they are huge - 200 tons each canister, they are difficult to move. Secondly, the one who reveals them dies. Therefore, to come up with such a design that allows you to effectively use such a bomb is the same theoretical blackmail as all other nuclear horrors."
Meanwhile, at the beginning of this summer, non-strategic nuclear forces were trained in Russia, which included the Leningrad and Southern Military Districts, as well as the military from Belarus. According to the conventional targets of the enemy, the armies of the two countries learned how to launch electronic missiles from the ground, air and sea.
The Kremlin said that these exercises were provoked by the statements of the leaders of NATO countries regarding the possibility of sending military personnel of Western countries to Ukraine. And Vladimir Putin, speaking at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, spoke about a possible change in Russia's nuclear doctrine.
NATO nuclear deterrence
The possibility of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine has been discussed since the beginning of the Russian invasion in February 2022. Russia gives an excuse for this by transferring nuclear weapons to Belarus and arranging exercises with the withdrawal of nuclear forces into position, notes the BBC.
For its part, NATO, albeit more moderately, openly reminds us of the existence of its own nuclear weapons in Europe and talks about deterring Russia.
Since the Cold War, when we talked about nuclear deterrence, we meant strategic weapons—intercontinental missiles and warheads capable of destroying another country.
But now Europe is also talking about smaller-scale deterrence with the use of tactical nuclear weapons (TWW) — lower-power charges mounted on a carrier with a shorter range.
However, despite these limitations, there may be more problems with it. At least because the role of TYAZ in modern warfare, the number and purpose are not very clearly defined.
The fact that in NATO countries, deterrence provides not only strategic weapons, but also TYAZ, located in Europe, has been said a lot before. But in recent years, it has been mentioned more and more often, especially after a series of statements by the Russian leadership, the transportation of tactical weapons to Belarus, and demonstration exercises of tactical nuclear forces.
On June 12, 2024, the Secretary General of the Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, speaking at a briefing before the start of the meeting of NATO defense ministers, linked nuclear deterrence with Russian activity.
"NATO's nuclear deterrence is our main security guarantee, our main deterrence is what has developed over the years in the Joint Nuclear Missions agreements, where the United States has nuclear weapons in Europe [...] What we have seen in recent years or months — this is dangerous nuclear rhetoric from the Russian side. We saw that Russia announced the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus, and we also saw several more exercises, nuclear exercises from the Russian side," he said.
Since tactical nuclear weapons are not intended for the destruction of enemy states, but for use on the battlefield, their relatively low power is one of the important characteristics.
However, as military experts point out, the relatively small power of TYAZ is dangerous because politicians or the military may decide to use it, thinking that it will not provoke a full-scale nuclear war.
"At the same time, a number of tactical munitions have charges that are equal in power, and sometimes even exceed charges of strategic systems," another Russian expert, who also wished to remain anonymous, explained to the BBC.
This applies in particular to Russian tactical nuclear munitions, the power of some of them can be quite high. However, NATO believes that in fact Russia has no intention of using nuclear weapons.
"We consider it unlikely that Putin would use nuclear weapons in this conflict. And we have no information that he decided to use this or any other weapon of mass destruction, chemical, biological or radioactive. But at the same time, Russian rhetoric remains quite dangerous. We consider it irresponsible for the head of any nuclear power [to utter such words] in this context," a NATO representative told the BBC.
In Kyiv, meanwhile, they think differently. Oleksandr Lytvynenko, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, said in an interview with the Times that he does not rule out that Putin may use tactical nuclear weapons if the Russian army is defeated in Ukraine.
A Russian military expert, who spoke to the BBC on condition of anonymity, said the Kremlin's determination should not be underestimated.
"I don't really understand what this confidence is based on. We are sure that Putin will not use nuclear weapons... Why?” he said.
