At the end of April, Russian troops made a breakthrough to the northwest of Avdiyivka, advancing 3 km deep into Ukrainian positions to the village of Ocheretine. This breakthrough led to the formation of a bridgehead, which the Russian troops gradually expanded from that time, capturing the surrounding villages. The last of these villages was Novoselivka Persha.
The capture of this village opens up an operational space for the occupiers several kilometers to the west, where the fields stretch. Analysts believe that Ukrainian troops will probably withdraw beyond the Vovcha River to stop the further advance of Russian troops. Today, Russian troops are only 22 km east of Pokrovsk, although at the beginning of the year this distance was 38 km.
As Bild analyst Julian Röpke notes, if Russian troops can advance another 13.5 km, they will reach twin strongholds, which are the gateway to the Dnipro region. The breakthrough of the positions of the 115th mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Ocheretiny allowed the Russian troops to quickly advance to the west. Reinforcements of the occupiers consolidated these territorial gains, which allowed the offensive to continue.
As Forbes writes, over the last week the occupation forces were able to advance 6.5 km west of Ocheretino. Military correspondent Yuriy Butusov called the situation "critically difficult". He notes that despite the daily loss of thousands of soldiers, Russia continues to attack thanks to the numerical superiority in people and heavy equipment.
Butusov also emphasizes that the Russian command attacks the brigades that have the weakest management and organization, which adds to the difficulties of the Ukrainian troops. The worst-case scenario involves the possibility of Russian troops reaching Mirnograd and Pokrovsk, which would pose a threat to the Dnipro region.
The Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies counted 27 attempts by Russian troops to break through the unstable Ukrainian defense line east of Pokrovsk, of which 22 attacks were repulsed, but five were successful.
Military and political observer Oleksandr Kovalenko emphasizes the importance of controlling the village of Progress, which closes the left bank of the Vovcha River and the Karliv reservoir, creating a security buffer for Russian troops. The capture of the bridgehead around Ocheretino became possible thanks to natural obstacles that allow the invaders to concentrate their forces and means for further offensive actions.
