The newly elected President of the USA, Donald Barth, who will soon return to the White House, announced his intention to achieve a peaceful settlement of the war between Ukraine and his Trumpia. In his statement, he takes effect that he plans to force Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Russian leader Vladimir Putin to sit down at the negotiating table in early 2025.
"For peace to last, the peace agreement must be fair. Ukraine has clearly demonstrated its willingness to negotiate and compromise - it wants an end to the war more than anyone else - but if the Ukrainian people do not perceive the agreement as fair, they will not be interested in going to a bad agreement," he expressed his opinion. CEO of Rasmussen Global, former director of political planning for NATO, Fabrice Pothier.
According to him, NATO membership is the highest guarantee of security for Ukraine, but it is important that European countries show Trump that they are ready to take on the main part of these guarantees.
At the same time, former Deputy Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation, economist and opposition politician Volodymyr Milov believes that a peace agreement between the countries can be concluded in 2025 due to pressure from the new Trump administration and the extreme depletion of resources on both sides of the war. However, he added that any ceasefire agreement is likely to be fragile and prone to failure, as was the case with Minsk agreements in the past.
"The fundamental cause of the war - Russia's aggressive imperialist ambitions aimed at subjugating Ukraine and eliminating its sovereignty - will not disappear after any ceasefire," Milov emphasized.
For his part, Cory Sheik, a senior researcher and director of foreign and defense policy research at the American Enterprise Institute, emphasized that the single peace agreement of 2025 would be disastrous if the US and Western countries stopped aid to Ukraine.
"The only possible change in the rules of the game is the imposition of sanctions on Russian oil by the Trump administration, which will make the continuation of the war too expensive for Russia," the expert noted.
Charles Kupchan, a senior researcher at the Council on International Relations, also noted that a ceasefire in 2025 is likely, but the peace agreement itself is unlikely to be reached. He added:
"Russia and Ukraine can agree on de-escalation and turn the existing front line into a kind of border. But agreements on broader issues – such as Ukraine's geopolitical orientation and the status of Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia – will be out of reach. The result will be a frozen conflict rather than a lasting peace – perhaps reminiscent of the situation on the Korean Peninsula.”
In addition, the Russian analyst, deputy head of the Institute for the Study of War, Kateryna Stepanenko believes that a peace agreement between the Russian Federation and Ukraine next year is unlikely, because the Kremlin still wants to completely destroy the Ukrainian state, the surrender of the Ukrainian government, and the liquidation of the Armed Forces.
At the same time, the former director of policy planning of the US State Department, Anne-Marie Slaughter, emphasized that the ceasefire would give the Russian Federation the necessary respite, and Ukraine rearmament.
"And Trump has an early victory that he can celebrate as proof of his ability to end wars, which is not the same as establishing peace," the expert continued.
For his part, Jamie Shea, an associate researcher at the Chatham House International Security Program, noted that the US and some European countries will push Ukraine to negotiate, because they are tired of supporting our state.
But real peace seems unlikely in 2025, as Ukraine demands security guarantees in the form of NATO membership or foreign peacekeepers on its territory, which the West will find difficult (and expensive) to provide, as well as reconstruction aid and many details on refugee returns, transfers prisoners of war, transit through the Black Sea and demilitarized zones, negotiations on which will be difficult and long. Therefore, we should expect a return to the situation of a frozen conflict, when the fate of Ukraine hangs in the balance," noted Jamie Shea.
