In the face of climate change, Ukraine faces increasingly frequent natural disasters, such as large-scale forest fires and floods in Europe. Experts, in particular Oleg Listopad from the Network for the Protection of National Interests of ANTS, believe that in order to mitigate the consequences of these phenomena, it is necessary to reformat forests and adapt them to new climatic conditions.
In Ukraine, the situation is worsened by the increased danger of fires on large areas, because "we have planted a lot of artificial pine forests," the expert notes. And he calls for a moratorium on peat extraction to be introduced in Ukraine. And spending money on utilities is a separate issue, says the expert.
They buy sakura for several million, spherical acacias. They may be pretty, but they don't provide shade. Natalya Ptukha, forecaster of the Ukrhydrometeorological center, said: can we expect a warm winter with such a warm September?
There is nothing strange about floods, as well as during a dry period. The question is how strong these phenomena are
How is it possible that our neighbors, in Poland and the Czech Republic, have rivers overflowing their banks, and we have a warm autumn and at the same time fires in several regions?
Oleg Listopad : There is nothing strange about floods. The same as in the dry season. In our western regions there were also floods not so long ago. There is nothing special about it. The question is how strong these phenomena are and how often they occur. And these are the consequences, as experts say, of climate change. When the global average temperature on the planet increases. And it increases because greenhouse gases enter the atmosphere.
That is, the amount of carbon in the atmosphere increases. Due to this, the atmosphere heats up, more moisture can accumulate in it. And if more has accumulated, more may fall out. A cyclone came to European territory, and a large amount of precipitation fell there. It is necessary to talk about how to avoid victims and reduce losses.
What do you think caused the heavy rains and floods in Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic and Austria?
Oleg Listopad : I repeat, this is not the first time. There is nothing extraordinary in such abundant precipitation. In 2021, there were such rains in Germany. The only question is the readiness of people, the readiness of the authorities of small cities and towns for such events. Czech colleagues from Prague inform me that the situation in the city itself is normal.
In the Czech Republic, a huge river valley is not being developed. After all, if we build something in the valley, it will be exposed to the elements. A river valley is such a conventional bowl, which is formed due to the fact that it is filled with a large mass of water from time to time. This is Archimedes' law. If we throw an object of a certain volume into a vessel, the amount of water from this vessel will spill out on the volume of this object.
By the way, in Europe there are so-called red lines. These lines are drawn on the map after similar climatic events that occur once every 50 years. And whoever builds below these lines does not receive any compensation from the state. And no insurance company will insure such construction. And if there will be, then at such interest that the builder himself will not want to insure.
Red lines
And how is it happening in Ukraine?
Oleg Listopad : In Ukraine, the State Emergency Service should develop such red lines by 2024. I understand that now the State Emergency Service is not up to it. Although I am not sure that those specialists who should be engaged in this, they are busy directly analyzing the debris. Therefore, the State Emergency Service should ask where are our maps with red lines?
When there were floods in Transcarpathia in the 1990s, people openly speculated on this, using support programs that resettled people. And after some time, I saw that people began to build housing 20 meters from the river. I asked the head of the village then, how could it be, because there were floods recently? And I heard in response that, they say, there is no more place to build. I don't even know what to call such thinking and such behavior.
"On my T-shirt it is written: "Let's turn the environment from a victim to a weapon"
How abnormally warm and dry is this year's autumn?
Oleg Listopad : There are two ways to respond to climate change in general: reduce emissions, reduce the use of fossil fuels, stop the war in Ukraine, which is burning oil depots, burning forests, spending money that can be spent to stop climate change. Our ecologists at all sites, wherever they are, convey this opinion to all international organizations: if you do not care about human tears, then think about yourself, stop the war, provide weapons, impose sanctions.
Russia has to pay for it; on my T-shirt it is written: "Let's turn the environment from a victim to a weapon." Today, our environment is a victim and should be turned into a weapon. Information about our destroyed environment must be turned into a weapon. And we must ensure that this factor also works for our victory.
"Now, like hot cakes, licenses for peat and amber mining are being distributed"
And our warm autumn is abnormal?
Oleg Listopad : Let's remember the year 2020. Autumn was even hotter. Then there was a snowless winter. And then the State Agency for Water Resources limited water use. There were restrictions for energy workers, there was not enough water even in reservoirs. This affected the crops and everything. And that year too there were terrible fires.
The second way to respond to climate change is to adapt to it. And we have a problem with this. Although plans are being developed. A well-known specialist, meteorologist Svitlana Krakowska, together with her colleagues, participated in the development of adaptation plans for three regions.
We also have a fantastic forest fire safety specialist, Doctor of Biological Sciences Serhiy Zibtsev. He has a team and they have a whole package of offers. After 2020, after these huge fires, a draft strategy was prepared. I followed this link to the website of the Ministry of Environment and did not find this page. It is not known what will happen with this strategy, and how we will fight the fires, and what our plans are. And the plans are actually not that complicated.
- First, it is necessary to ban the extraction of peat and the draining of peatlands and swamps. And since Soviet times, large-scale reclamation has been taking place in our country. And now, like hot cakes, licenses for peat and amber mining are being distributed. The state receives a million or two hryvnias for this license, and then losses from fires amount to hundreds of millions. And the lack of harvest, because there is nothing to irrigate, amounts to billions. That is why we need a moratorium on peat extraction. And restoring peatlands is actually not difficult. There is the experience of European countries, and there are Ukrainian specialists who understand this issue.
- Secondly, we have planted a lot of artificial pine forests. And this is a pine of the same age. The so-called one-century monoculture. The fires we observe occur in dry forest. There, any spark leads to ignition.
"Forests need to be reformatted"
What can be done with these forests?
Oleg Listopad : Forests need to be reformatted. A lot is said about it, but nothing is done. The pine tree continues to grow. I observe other species in small quantities, for example, in some places, a row of red oak can be planted. But there are no drastic changes.
Tell us about that cyclone "Boris" in the territory of Europe. Where did it come from and why is it so powerful?
Natalya Ptukha: Its effect was practically minimized. The frontal systems connected with it moved to the territory of Italy. But they are no longer so active and do not cause catastrophic consequences. Cyclones are low pressure fields. They are always there. In the same way as anticyclones - high pressure fields. These are two opposing baric forces that shape the weather on the globe.
It's just that they are of different intensity, depending on the conditions they fall into. There was a peak of activity of this cyclone over Central Europe. This cyclone turned out to be blocked, because a powerful high pressure field - an anticyclone - was located from the north, from the northeast. Accordingly, it blocked this cyclone over Central Europe, and it had no way to advance anywhere. So for several days he was spinning in one place.
That is why there was so much precipitation in certain areas. Also, an additional factor was that the temperature difference is always a prerequisite for precipitation. That is, precipitation falls on atmospheric fronts, and atmospheric fronts are, in fact, conditional dividing lines between warm and cold air masses. When warm and cold air meet, then clouds and precipitation appear. This is in simple language.
The situation developed as follows. It was from the north, from the northern latitudes, that there was an intense flow of cold air to the territory of Central Europe at that time. At the same time, a rather warm, hot air mass was located over the Black Sea, over the southeastern part of Europe, over Ukraine, as for September.
Can we expect a warm winter with such a warm September?
The warm autumn will continue?
Natalya Ptukha: The weather will be clear in most regions. And it will be quite a long period.
For how long a period?
Natalya Ptukha : We will maintain a high-pressure field until the 25th. No chance of precipitation.
Can we expect a warm winter with such a warm September?
Natalya Ptukha: We cannot guarantee such a direct correlation and connection. And there is no such connection. But there is a general trend. We are experiencing climate change, and the average global temperature has been higher than the entire history of synoptic observations for 12, even 13 months in a row in the last year. And this means that there will be more periods of warm days. But we are a country of seasonal changes, so there can be gulfs of cold and frosty days. Simply, according to the global trend, the period of cold days with frost is becoming shorter and shorter.
"Why shave bare green grass in yards? To write off this gasoline?”
What else do we need to change about climate change?
Oleg Listopad : Refusal to mow the grass could make life in big cities more comfortable. Regarding this, there were already petitions from the people of Kyiv. Cultivated lawns are irrigated, so the grass does not look yellow immediately after mowing. But why shave bare green grass in yards? To write off this gasoline? To write off some funds under the guise of these works? There are experimental plots with various herbs. And they are beautiful! But these are little things.
Trees are also crowned completely illiterately. Instead of cutting the crown, lower frame branches are cut. The expenditure of funds by our public services during the war is a separate matter. Sakuras are purchased for several million, spherical acacias. They may be pretty, but they don't provide shade. Everything is aimed at laundering money, not at running the green economy that will give the maximum benefit at the least cost.
Green areas are destroyed in order to put some fountains. Of course, business should work, but not at the expense of green areas. In order to adapt to climate change, we need to join the EU and build a rule of law.
