After Donald Trump's re -election, investors with optimism look at the prospects for the end of the war in Ukraine. Stock markets, especially in Europe, show significant growth, indicating the expectation of stability and possible peace.
The greatest growth was demonstrated by the actions of European defense concerns. For example, the cost of Hensoldt, Leonardo and RheinMetall has doubled compared to the level of elections in the US. At the same time, US Giants Lockheed Martin and L3harris have lost more than 10%, which may indicate a revision of military investment priorities.
Interestingly, the European Index Stoxx 600 increased by 14% in dollars, while the US S&P 500 showed a slight decrease and the German Dax added almost 25%. This indicates the confidence of European investors in the future region.
Separate investors pay attention to Russian companies, which are bought on international exchanges. The expectation of a potential weakening of sanctions has pushed up the Rusal (+61%), Raiffeisen Bank (+39%) and OTP Bank (+23%).
Such trends indicate that global financial circles put in their predictions the probable end of the war and the return of Russia to a more open economic policy.
A significant indicator of investor expectations is the price of Ukrainian government bonds and corporate debt papers. The bonds of the energy, rail and infrastructure companies of Ukraine have been increasing since November 2024.
David Huner of Bank of America notes that repayment bonds in 2028 indicate that speculators estimate the high probability of peaceful completion of the conflict. At the same time, Goldman Sachs adds that if Ukrainian GDP increases by 4.7% every year, the country will be able to reach the 2023 level by 25%.
However, this scenario is possible only under conditions of prolonged peace and stability, which additionally confirms the expectations of markets for the rapid completion of the fighting.
Despite the overall optimism, on February 28, the altercation took place in the oval office, after which the expectations of rapid peace decreased sharply. Analysts say that since then the financial markets have not fully restored their position.
This may mean that although investors put at the end of the war, they understand that negotiations will be difficult and peace guarantees are unstable.
