Russia's capture of Pokrovsk is a matter of time, not probability, and its possible fall could weaken Kyiv's position at a sensitive moment in US-led talks to end the war, according to a Reuters analysis, which notes that even if Ukraine's defenses in this area do not suddenly collapse, the informational and political effect of the battle for the city works in Moscow's favor.
On December 1, the Russian side declared full control over Pokrovsk, two days before US President Donald Trump's son-in-law and a special envoy visited Moscow for talks with Vladimir Putin. The American side reported that the agreement on a peace plan was close to completion. Kyiv denies these statements and claims that Ukrainian forces are holding positions north of Pokrovsk, a former hub city with 60,000 inhabitants that was important for the logistics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces approaching the front.
According to Mykola Beleskov, a senior analyst at the Come Back Alive Foundation, Moscow benefits from a combination of combat pressure and political negotiations: "A new round of pressure on Ukraine to resolve the conflict on unfavorable terms is taking place in parallel with heavy fighting in this direction, which affects Trump's perception of the situation," the expert notes.
According to Reuters, Ukraine is in a difficult position: on the one hand, it is forced to maintain constructive relations with the United States, which supplies critical weapons and intelligence, and on the other, Kyiv cannot agree to a peace that involves the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the entire territory of Donbas, as Russia insists. The Ukrainian authorities emphasize that after ten years of war for Donbas, Ukraine has no right to cede sovereign lands.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump's rhetoric is becoming more strident. In a recent interview, he said that "Russia is gaining ground" and that it's "time for the Ukrainian president to face reality." This is putting additional pressure on Kyiv at a time when fighting in eastern Ukraine remains intense.
The situation on the front around Pokrovsk demonstrates how difficult it is for Russia to advance even with superior artillery and numbers. After the full-scale invasion began, the war turned into a fight of attrition. According to Reuters, Russia controls about 19.2% of Ukraine’s territory — just one percent more than at the end of 2022. Pokrovsk could become the first city that Moscow has completely captured since the fall of Avdiivka in 2024. The city is virtually destroyed, and the number of inhabitants has decreased to 1,200 people.
Ukrainian military officials confirm that the Russians are advancing in small groups of six or fewer soldiers, trying to infiltrate gaps in defenses and establish themselves in individual buildings. A UAV operator with the call sign “Lambada” told the agency that the lack of infantry is making the defense much more difficult: “They are infiltrating around our positions, using numerous assault groups. We have a critical shortage of infantry.”
The issue of Ukraine's mobilization reserve, the agency notes, periodically worries allies. The United States has repeatedly called on Kyiv to expand conscription, but the government avoids lowering the conscription age below 25 so as not to harm the younger generation.
The peace plan proposed by the US initially called for Ukraine to withdraw from the entire Donetsk region. This week, Volodymyr Zelensky announced that he had developed an updated 20-point plan with European leaders, but there is no agreement in principle on the issue of territories.
According to Reuters, Russia may try to capture Sloviansk and Kramatorsk — cities that Ukraine has turned into "fortresses" on the outskirts of Donbas — and use the dominant heights to launch drones over long distances. The occupation forces have also advanced in Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, but analysts do not predict any quick breakthroughs.
Ukraine continues to rely on strategic pressure: since August, Ukrainian forces have been attacking Russia’s oil industry in an attempt to reduce the Kremlin’s revenues and cause fuel shortages. In recent weeks, Ukrainian drones have been harassing Russian oil tankers in the Black Sea, which could affect logistics and insurance costs for the supplier fleet.
Kyiv insists that it is ready for a "just" peace, but excludes territorial concessions. The Ukrainian authorities expect that even if American support decreases, Europe will be able to compensate for some of the military and financial resources.
