Well-known Ukrainian journalist and political commentator Vitaliy Portnikov believes that if the presidential elections are held under the security guarantees of the United States and Russia, Volodymyr Zelensky will have the best chance of winning. According to Portnikov, it is the post-war or conditionally "frozen" format of elections with external guarantees that creates the most favorable political conditions for the incumbent head of state.
Portnikov stressed that in the conditions of martial law and limited political activity, Zelensky's real competitors are unlikely to participate in the race. He suggested that key figures who are seen by many as potential rivals are unlikely to campaign. Valeriy Zaluzhny will not leave the diplomatic service in the UK, Kyrylo Budanov will remain as head of the GUR, and Andriy Biletsky will continue his service at the front. According to the journalist, this makes their participation in the elections practically unrealistic.
In this case, Portnikov believes, the election campaign will be limited in nature and will most likely consist of so-called technical candidates or spoilers. This significantly strengthens the position of the incumbent president, who retains recognition, control over the power vertical, and public resources even during martial law.
The journalist also noted that holding elections in such conditions would de facto take place during a war, which creates additional advantages for the current head of state. Earlier, former US President Donald Trump said that Ukraine should organize presidential elections, and Volodymyr Zelensky expressed his readiness to hold the vote within 60-90 days, provided that the United States provides the necessary guarantees of the security of the electoral process.
