In Ukraine, the trend is gaining momentum, when parents are looking for opportunities to emigrate together with their children, in particular boys of pre-conscription age. They fear the future mobilization of their sons if the war drags on. But how serious is this problem, and what consequences will it have for demography and society?
As Oleksiy Pozniak, a senior researcher at the Institute of Demography and Social Research, notes, there are no concrete data on the number of boys going abroad. However, according to the State Border Service, in 2024 the difference between departures and returns increased by 200,000 people compared to the previous year.
"We cannot say for sure what part of them are boys of pre-conscription age. They don't leave alone, but with their parents," Pozniak explains.
Such an outflow of young people can cause a significant gender imbalance in the age groups of 17-20 years. The expert predicts that the superiority of women in this age category will become obvious, creating new challenges for society.
"It is possible that there will be difficulties in the marriage market - it will be more difficult for young women to find partners among their peers. But among older age groups, on the contrary, more women went abroad, while men stayed. Therefore, the situation may be ambiguous," Pozniak notes.
One of the key questions is whether Ukrainians are ready to return home after the end of the war? Pozniak emphasizes that the results of polls on this issue are not reliable, because people's intentions change depending on the circumstances.
"Today, many do not want to return because of social assistance or comfort abroad, but this does not mean that the decision will remain the same in the future," the expert explains.
According to approximate estimates, about 34 million people currently live in Ukraine. This figure remains uncertain due to the difficulties in carrying out the census in wartime conditions.
The mass exodus of young Ukrainians, especially boys, endangers not only the demographic balance, but also the economic future of the country. The preservation of the population and the return of emigrants will depend on how Ukraine can guarantee security, economic stability and development after the war.
