The number of Ukrainian refugees who plan to return home is declining. If in 2022 74% of them intended to return, now this figure fell up to 43%. Such data is cited by the Economic Strategy Center, and quotes the Economist.
The main reason for refusing to return is the war and uncertainty about the future of Ukraine. The threat of a new invasion, as well as the possibility of frozen conflict without integration into NATO and the EU, make many Ukrainians finally arrange abroad.
Earlier it was believed that most women who left would return home after the war. However, today experts say that the reality has changed. The integration of Ukrainians into European societies, the adaptation of children to local schools and getting jobs forced many refugees to choose their lives abroad, even if the fighting stops.
Despite the fact that departure abroad for men of conscript is significantly limited, after the martial law, the situation may change dramatically. According to CES estimates, more than 500,000 Ukrainian men may leave the country as soon as the restraint restrictions will be abolished. This can cause a new wave of emigration, which will significantly hit the demographic future of Ukraine.
Thus, if earlier the main challenge was the return of women and children, now more experts are paying attention to the risk of mass outflow of men after the war. This can lead to an even greater reduction in the country's population and complicate its economic recovery.
Ukraine faces unprecedented demographic challenge. If the country does not create the conditions for the return of its citizens, including security guarantees, economic prospects and clear integration into European structures, emigration can be even more problem than the war. The question remains open: will Ukraine be able to keep its citizens after the conflict is completed, is it waiting for a long -term outflow of the population?
