The International Monetary Fund keeps the basic scenario on the duration of the full -scale war of Russia against Ukraine - experts expect active fighting in the last months of 2025. This is stated in the updated IMF Memorandum, published after the latest review of the financing program of Ukraine.
Despite the high risks and uncertainty, the fund leaves the forecast unchanged: the intensive phase of war, according to the base scenario, will continue until the end of this year. At the same time, despite the hope of stabilizing the safety situation, economic growth forecasts were adjusted towards reduction.
Thus, the expected increase in GDP of Ukraine in 2025 was reduced by 0.5 percentage point - to the limit of 2-3%. The reasons were the reduction of steel exports, the increase in coal imports after the loss of the mine in Pokrovsk, as well as the need to increase gas imports as a result of Russian blows on gas infrastructure.
"Prolonged hostilities, including recent attacks on critical infrastructure, will have a negative impact on economic growth in 2025," the document stated.
Despite the difficult situation, the IMF states that macroeconomic stability in Ukraine is generally maintained - thanks to the well -being government policy and support of international partners. According to the head of the Krystalina Foundation Georgieva, the financing program is fully provided: the basic scenario refers to $ 148.8 billion of external assistance, and in case of complications - about $ 162.9 billion.
At the same time, the IMF recognizes that negotiations on the possible termination of the war are very early. The situation may change depending on the positions of international allies and domestic political factors in Ukraine and Russia.
Despite all the difficulties, the faith of Ukrainians in the victory remains high. According to a survey of the Razumkov Center, conducted in March 2025, 74% of citizens believe in the victory of Ukraine. The largest proportion of respondents (30%) considers the full recovery of borders as of January 2014. Another 17% associate it with the destruction of the Russian army and a change in the political regime in the Russian Federation.
