According to Russian military propaganda, on February 1, Russian troops entered the city of Avdiyivka, breaking through the defenses of Ukrainian forces. The reports of Ukrainian analysts indicate a difficult situation for the garrison of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the beginning of fighting in the city.
According to the BBC, on January 19, a Russian military group advanced to the southernmost streets of Avdiyivka, including Sportivna, Chernyshevsky, Lisova, Sedov and Soborna.
Military bloggers from Russia talk about the presence of a Russian "bridgehead" in this area, behind the restaurant complex "Tsarske Polyava".
On February 6, a video of the detonation of the Bradley armored vehicle on Chernyshevsky Street was broadcast on Russian Telegram channels. It was claimed that this was a counterattack by the Armed Forces to expel the enemy from the city, but without success.
The Ukrainian authorities reject information about the beginning of "urban fighting" and claim that the Russian sabotage and intelligence group has already been pushed out of the southern outskirts of the city.
On February 5, the analytical portal DeepState reported that the situation in Avdiivka is worsening, noting that Russian troops began to attack more actively not only on the southern, but also on the northern outskirts of the city, in particular, in the area of the country settlement near the Avdiivka coke plant.
"Many questions arise regarding the preparation of defense structures, both around the city and in the city itself," DeepState emphasized.
Yuriy Butusov, war correspondent and editor-in-chief of "Censor.Net", who visited Avdiivka on February 5, noted that Russian troops had already reached a distance of 1.2 km from the entrance to the city.
On the air of the telethon on February 6, the head of the military administration of Avdiyivka Vitaliy Barabash said that the situation is becoming "critical".
"The situation is very tense. If earlier we said that it is difficult, but controlled, now we have very important difficulties and we can say that in some places it is a critical situation", he emphasized.
However, Barabash emphasized that there are no street fights in the city yet, but separate groups of Russians are trying to break through.
According to Barabash, during one day, the Russian army dropped 37 aerial bombs on the city, and 50 shellings were also recorded.
Dmytro Lykhova, head of the press service of the Tavriya operational-strategic group of troops, refused to comment on the report of the Air Force of Ukraine about the beginning of fighting in the urban area of Avdiyivka.
"We have heard such comments from unofficial sources, but we do not wish to comment on them, as the situation is dynamic and constantly changing," the spokesman noted.
In recent days, Russian troops have increased the intensity of assault operations. The number of collisions, airstrikes and the use of FPV drones is increasing.
"Our defenders firmly hold the defense, inflicting a complex fire attack on the enemy. At the same time, the enemy is suffering significant losses and is preparing new reserves to be put into action," Lykhovi noted.
He emphasized that the logistical supply of the group in Avdiivka is stable, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine are taking measures to improve defense by establishing additional firing positions and observation points.
"The situation is difficult, but under control," emphasized the spokesman of the "Tavria" OSU.
The plans of the Russian command are becoming obvious. Despite almost four months of active operations and significant losses in people and equipment, the Russian troops did not manage to carry out a "broad sweep" of Avdiyivka. They failed to break through to the southern and northern flanks to cut the supply lines of the Ukrainian garrison.
In such a situation, Russian troops move to an alternative plan. In mid-January, they managed to penetrate the Ukrainian position near the "Tsarske polyavya" restaurant in the southern part of the city, using an underground passage.
Apparently, their next step is to advance north along Soborna and Chernyshevskogo streets to the area of 9 and 5-story buildings known as the "9th quarter." This area is 1.5-2 km from their current location and is of great tactical importance.
On the other hand, a group of Russian troops is trying to break through from the north of the city to the intersection near the Avdiyiv auto depot and the area of the restaurant complex "Brevno". This will allow them to cut the main logistical artery of the Armed Forces - route 00542.
To achieve this goal, the Russian army must completely seize the private massif of the Ivushka garden society and overcome the railway tracks.
The DeepState portal notes that the goal has already been partially achieved. During February 4-5, Russian troops moved their military units to the country massif and tried to capture the bridge located over the railway track.
This bridge is located approximately 500 meters from the depot and one kilometer from the Brevno position.
All this is done with the aim of dividing the garrison in Avdiivka in half. Either force the Ukrainian troops in the south and southeast of the city - in the area of the 9th quarter and the "Zenith" positions - to retreat, or surround these military groups, cutting off the supply routes in the area of Industrial Avenue and route 00542. The military of the Armed Forces will also be in a difficult position, who defend the territory of the Avdiiv coke plant in the north of the city.
"Even with partial success and maintaining the current positions, the Ukrainian troops in the city will be in a much more difficult position and will be forced to move their supply lines from convenient streets covered with houses, closer to open fields in the west", - explains the purpose of these actions, the Russian Telegram channel "Military" whistleblower" (585 thousand subscribers).
What's next?
Ukrainian military analyst Mykhailo Zhirokhov points out the difficulty of creating a complete map of the events in the city of Avdiyivka. This is explained both by the intensity of hostilities and the lack of stable telephone communication in the city.
"At the moment, it is obvious that the Russians are bypassing the city from two sides, and so far they have not managed to control the main route leading to the north," noted an expert from the Air Force of Ukraine.
Regarding street fighting, Zhirokhov points out the difference between the situation in Bakhmut and Avdiivka. If the latter has flat terrain and dense multi-story buildings, the situation is different in Avdiivka.
"Everything is changing in Avdiivka. If the Russians capture the high-rise district known as District 9, which is located on high ground, further battles for the city may lose their meaning. - says the analyst. - Then they will have the opportunity to control the territory up to neighboring settlements. If they do, it will be a place where they will deploy drones and artillery, and Ukrainian defenses in the city will become irrelevant. Even the Avdiiv coke plant will be in their hands."
Thus, it is unlikely that the situation in Avdiivka will repeat the one that happened in Bakhmut last spring, when Russian forces, mainly mercenaries of the Wagner PMC, gradually advanced through the urban development, house by house, block by block, and eventually moved to eastern suburbs, pushing out the Ukrainian garrison.
Regarding the actions of the Ukrainian troops, Mykhailo Zhirokhov notes that there are two options: to strengthen the garrison and launch counterattacks in the rear of the Russian troops, or to gradually withdraw the armed forces from the city.
"But at the moment, there are no signs of strengthening of the group, nor of counterattacks. It's a little strange."
According to the analyst, the Armed Forces have reserves that can be redistributed from other, less stressful directions. This tactic is already being used by the Russian Federation, which is actively transferring reserves to Avdiivka from other fronts.
In case both sides decide to start street fighting in the city, it will be a challenge for personnel.
"Street fighting requires motivated and well-trained foot soldiers, simply mobilized military personnel will not be able to cope with it. This is a specific type of military action," the analyst notes.
If the Ukrainian authorities decide to withdraw the garrison from the semi-encircled city, there is still time for this, but it is short, Zhirokhov is sure.
"We have not yet reached the point of no return. There is an opportunity to gradually withdraw the Ukrainian group across the borders. But the time period is shrinking. And it happens very quickly," he emphasizes.
The military command refrains from commenting on this issue, but notes that the safety of the Ukrainian military is a priority.
"As repeated by the leaders of the Ukrainian state and the Armed Forces, in the most difficult moments on the battlefield, the most important thing is the preservation of the lives of our soldiers, the defenders of Ukraine," said Dmytro Lykhovii, the spokesman of the "Tavria" OSU.
