In its inflation report, the National Bank of Ukraine predicts further departure of Ukrainians abroad in the coming years. NBU experts expect that in 2024 the number of migrants may reach approximately 400,000 people, and in 2025 - about 300,000. These numbers are somewhat more pessimistic compared to previous estimates, due to the negative impact on the situation of prolonged power outages and problems with the heating season.
According to experts, the destruction of Ukraine's energy system significantly worsened economic conditions in the country, which leads to a decrease in production activity and an increase in unemployment, which, in turn, pushes people to migrate.
The NBU also notes that the economic situation will not stabilize in the near future due to high risks and dangers. It is expected that the net return of Ukrainians will begin only in 2026, when about 400,000 people may return to the country. This is due to the adaptation of migrants to a new life and the continuation of difficult conditions in Ukraine, in particular, problems with electricity supply.
Regarding the demographic situation, journalist and immigration lawyer Andy Semotyuk previously expressed fears that up to 20 million citizens may leave Ukraine if Putin wins. He also emphasized that a prolonged cold war with Russia could cost the United States about $4 trillion.
