The danger of strikes by the occupiers with Zircon missiles on Ukraine: risk analysis

In the first months of 2024, at least two strikes by 3M22 "Zirkon" missiles were recorded on the territory of Ukraine. The first incident occurred at night on February 7 in the Dnipro district of Kyiv, near a destroyed power line. The remains of the rocket were found at the scene. The second strike was recorded on March 25.

The use of Zircon missiles caused serious questions and doubts, especially due to their narrow specificity and the expectation that they would not be used in Ukraine.

The 3M22 "Zirkon" missile is a hypersonic cruise missile with maneuverability, capable of reaching speeds of more than Mach 9. Its flight range can reach up to 500 km at low altitudes and up to 740 km on a semi-ballistic trajectory.

Project 22350M frigates can be promising carriers of "Zirkons", but their "M" modification has not yet started. The fixed launch direction of the missile on March 25 indicates its possible use from the temporarily occupied Crimea.

Russia can experiment with its weapons in a region where there are no major carriers, perhaps even adapting them to land carriers. However, the official verification of the remains of the missiles has not yet been carried out.

Ukraine needs modern means of countering such missiles, as the existing air defense systems are not effective enough. Without timely support from partners, Ukraine remains vulnerable to potential threats from Russia.

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