Against the background of a long war between Ukraine and Russia, negotiations have started in Riyadh that could be decisive for the future conflict. One of the main issues of discussion is the possibility of concluding a peace agreement, as well as the conditions of ceasefire. The Times analyzes the key points that can affect the course of negotiations and a potential compromise between the parties.
The first declared purpose of negotiations is to increase clarity as to which objects will be closed for long -distance blows. The next point is the spread of the truce to the Black Sea.
At the same time, supporters of Ukraine suspect that Moscow is more interested in protecting the remnants of their fleet and their oil facilities from the strikes of Ukrainian drones than in the termination of hostilities on the front lines, where its troops are still successful.
President Volodymyr Zelensky clearly stated that he did not want the war to end with the repetition of the Minsk agreements, and ceasefire may now look like this, freezing Russia's territorial heritage over the last three years.
The counter -demand of Ukraine will be effective monitoring and guarantees to prevent the Russians destabilizing Ukraine and restoring combat. This monitoring will have to be carried out by Western reconnaissance aircraft and satellites.
At the same time, although Russia has tried to veto on further exchange of intelligence, it is unlikely that such a requirement would withstand negotiations, the Times notes.
Russia categorically rejects the deployment of Western troops in Ukraine, while Zelensky will try to insist that Ukraine receives reliable security guarantees from its Western military allies.
Obviously, Ukraine will not join NATO - this has already said Trump.
"But what if Western countries are creating military training bases in certain geographical areas, for example, west of the Dnipro River? NATO's army fulfilled such missions in Ukraine before the 2022 invasion; the precedent is," the newspaper writes.
However, the planned Western forces of 20,000-30,000 people are not even described as peacekeeping. Instead, the concept of "calm forces" is considered, which will occasionally conduct visible patrols in the western Ukrainian regions, such as Odesa or Lviv regions.
"If the negotiators manage to sell such a modest presence to the Russians, it is almost certainly undermine the trust in it in the eyes of Ukrainians. Therefore, the" support ", about 120 NATO fighter jets in Poland and Romania, will be used to guarantee the agreement, becoming the main restraining factor for Russia," writes.
President Zelensky said his country never recognized Russia's sovereignty over the occupied regions, but also acknowledged that this land could not be returned by force.
Some propose a formula in which both parties recognize that the current front line is their actual border, but that the status of the occupied territories is still determined, citing the example of a truce in Korea in 1953. However, the problem is that this returns the situation to the type of agreement that Zelensky intends to avoid, as he assumes that Putin's long -term ambitions still consider to absorb his country several provinces at a time.
Two Russian requirements that can easily disrupt this process are the cessation of supplies of Western weapons and attempts to limit the size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Russia's perseverance in limiting the size and equipment of these forces will probably be perceived as a clear sign that the Kremlin intends to invade again as it is renewed and restore its own armed forces. Therefore, Zelensky and European leaders will insist on this issue, until he is ready to see the failure of the ceasefire, The Times writes.
However, it is unclear how important it is for Trump and his advisers to Ukraine's military viability.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine stated that the Ukrainian delegation does not plan meetings and contacts with Russian. According to a spokesman for Georgy Tykhoi, Ukraine considers the second round of negotiations as a technical and bilateral, that is, only with a US delegation.