Six days after Ukrainian positions west of Avdiivka suffered a breakthrough, Russian brigades and regiments continue to expand their breakthrough. They advance deep into Ukrainian territory, capturing the village of Ocheretyne.
The situation for the Ukrainian brigades in this area is becoming more and more exhausted. The loss of several villages around Ocheretino has already become an unquestionable fact.
However, the real threat is that the Ukrainian operational-strategic group "Tavria", which is responsible for the defense west of Avdiivka, may be forced to make a decision to retreat. This will mean reducing losses by retreating a few kilometers to the west and forming a new defensive line that will stretch from north to south-west of Ocheretino.
This retreat could result in the loss of tens of square miles of territory and force hundreds of civilians to flee or endure brutal occupation conditions.
Moreover, a bad retreat could create an opportunity for Russian forces to carry out further local attacks and achieve new breakthroughs, which could lead to a large-scale collapse of Ukrainian forces.
A retreat is an extremely risky operation, and disciplined armies plan it as carefully as an offensive. As historian Andrew OG Young points out in his book Armies in Retreat: Chaos, Cohesion, and Consequences, retreat is the most difficult operation for any commander and army.
The breakdown of Russian forces' breakthrough of Ukrainian positions west of Avdiyivka has become a central point of contention both in Kyiv and along the entire 600-mile front line, which has been criss-crossed for 26 months in Russia's massive war against Ukraine.
Some analysts blame this on the 115th mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which recently moved to a position in Ocheretyn and was defeated by the 30th motorized rifle brigade of the Russian army.
Others point to the fact that the 115th Mechanized Brigade is undersupplied and, like all other Ukrainian units, is facing ammunition problems while awaiting supplies from the United States, which have been delayed for six months by the actions of Russia-friendly Republicans. in the US Congress.
It is important to note that all Ukrainian brigades have been holding defensive positions under constant fire for a long time. "The aggressor has an advantage in air and artillery, delivering almost constant strikes on the positions of the Tavria operational and strategic group," the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies reports.
An imbalance in firepower can become critical in combat. Understanding this and perhaps being confident in their capabilities, the Russian command transferred the 15th and 74th motorized rifle brigades, as well as elements of the 90th tank division and special forces, to the area of the stronghold.
At least seven Ukrainian brigades and a separate battalion – the 23rd, 25th, 47th, 100th and 115th Mechanized Brigades, the 25th Airborne Brigade, the 3rd Assault Brigade and the 425th Assault Battalion – continue to resist.
It is clear that in total the Russian forces number more than 10,000 servicemen who are in the area of the salient or close to it. Opposing them are only 3,000 Ukrainian troops, if the estimate of the Center for Defense Strategies is accurate.
Defending is easier than attacking, even when the attacker has an advantage in firepower, so the Russians have no guarantees of victory and can force the Ukrainian forces to retreat.
The Center for Defense Strategies noted one of the main risks: "Replenishment of advanced units of the enemy's 30th motorized rifle brigade, which broke through to Ocheretyn, is effectively blocked by the Ukrainian defense forces, which retain full control over this route."
Having penetrated five miles of Ukrainian territory, the westernmost Russian troops found themselves practically alone and far from the main supply lines. They are vulnerable. If Ukrainian forces can starve them out before Russian reinforcements extend the salient and bolster logistics, the Russians may lose this battle.
This is an optimistic result for the outnumbered and armed Ukrainian brigades around Ocheretny. A realistic scenario involves their attempt to retreat with a battle to the west.
But the Ukrainians are desperately trying to avoid retreat. It's just too risky.
