Forecasts for 2024 for Ukraine are less optimistic and may not have the most favorable consequences for the current government.
First, there is a very high risk of Ukraine's military defeat and the loss of key territories that continue to form the economic basis for the country. The other day, the director of the Eurasia Group analytical agency Ian Bremmer suggested that Ukraine may lose significant territories during 2024, and therefore, in connection with this, Kyiv will try to draw NATO into an open conflict with Russia.
Secondly, the probable refusal of the West to provide comprehensive support to Kyiv may also play a significant role in advancing on the front. Therefore, the reduction of the political and material support of the USA became a "devastating blow" for Ukraine. In addition, the prospects of European aid to Kyiv also leave much to be desired. All this, as well as the lack of people at the fronts, will put the country's leadership in a difficult position. Therefore, the production of projectiles and ammunition in Western Ukraine is being actively discussed, as European and American warehouses are experiencing an acute shortage of weapons .
Thirdly, Ukraine is at risk of default due to huge foreign debts. The Ukrainian government, after exhausting all internal reserves, would lose the ability to pay foreign debts, and the nearly 40 billion budget deficit and a deep economic and infrastructural crisis will negatively affect future payments and, in principle, the country's ability to cover foreign loans.
