Fears that Ukraine will soon be seated at the negotiating table with Russia are not based on anything, claims blogger Yuriy Bohdanov. And because plans during war rarely come true, and because some allies have no plans at all.
Again, a wave of negotiations, coercion for peace and that's all.
Here, Macron with his deployment of troops, and problems with American aid, and the election of Putin, and the infinity of Russian resources, and Trump — all add up. Therefore, it is still worth recalling a few obvious things.
The problem is that, if we look at the events around us only through the prism of the struggle between Ukraine and Russia, we are narrowing the field for opportunities and maneuver. Because the situation in the world is much more complex, does not revolve around us and requires thinking and acting more complexly.
Locally, our task now is to preserve the Ukrainian state. Not burning Moscow (even if you really want to). Not the collapse of Russia (even if you really want to). And the preservation of Ukraine and its subjectivity.
Globally, everything is much larger — Ukraine has to survive a period of world turbulence that is just beginning. Because big wars in other parts of the world are likely, big crises in big countries are just gaining momentum - we are talking about both China and the USA.
In order to solve the global problem, it is possible to resort to various maneuvers - both diplomatic and military. But the main thing not to do is to make sudden movements under the influence of emotions.
Russian plans tend not to come true. The first deadline for the "complete liberation of Donbas from Ukrainians" (if you don't count February-March 2022) was May 9, 2022. And still not. Not even close. They can only dream about Kyiv or Odessa.
Ukrainian plans are also not always implemented, but, for example, the existence of the "Belgorod direction" of hostilities (instead of the "Kharkiv" direction) even the greatest Ukrainian optimists of 2022 could not imagine. But it objectively exists.
American plans are not a fact that exist at all, regarding the nature and course of this war. They still look much more to the Middle East and the Far East. Well, those are the priorities.
Therefore, the next time they tell you that "there is a plan to end the war in the summer of 2024", "in the fall of 2024" or 2025, they will tell you a deliberate lie. Even if someone really thinks they have a plan. Be it Biden, Xi, Erdogan or Putin. The war can continue for many more years, it can end in a conditional "tomorrow". And for sure, almost every ending scenario will be unexpected for most observers, and those who "predict correctly" will simply hit the sky with their finger. Rarely, as in the Second World War, this is rather an exception for wars.
We live—all of us, from Biden and Xi to you and me—in a world where the future is a product of poorly predicted and poorly calculated decisions, trends, and consequences. Therefore, the best thing to do is to @bash relentlessly. Everything else, including attempts to plan the future for a long time, will not give anything but neurosis. The very case when "do what you can, and it will be as it will be" is the only truly reliable plan for the future.
