Negotiations in Riyadh, which lasted from March 23, have attracted the attention of the world community not only thanks to meetings of Ukrainian and American delegations, but also through the dialogue of representatives of the US and Russia.
The possible results of negotiations was evaluated by political scientist Vadim Denysenko.
The Riyadh has negotiated Ukrainian and American and Russian and Russian delegations since March 23. The Minister of Defense of Ukraine Rustem Umerov in particular reported that the dialogue with the United States was effective. After the negotiations of US and Russian representatives, which lasted all day on March 24, it became known that the Ukrainian delegation will remain in Saudi Arabia for another day to meet with American colleagues again.
In parallel, US media report that the reports provided by US President Donald Trump's technical group in Riyadh seem optimistic. The official statement may appear in a few hours. But now we can talk about the logic of actions of the Russians, which is reduced to the formula: to offer a lot, to ask the impossible, to take time.
So how does it work?
Putin offers a number of high -margin transactions to Americans.
I repeatedly wrote and said that the proposal of the Russian Federation is that Americans are not only offered to enter the production and development of the Arctic, they are given mediation in trade in sub -goods in unfriendly countries (above all - the European Union). At the same time, Putin decided to play Trump's logic. And so he is ready to speak, as they say, even about the particles in "Rosatom" and "Roscosmos". And this is the main factor of pressure on Trump. At stake, again, tens of billion dollars a year.
In exchange, the Russian dictator asks for two things: the removal of sanctions and recognition of Russian Ukrainian territories. And in parallel it takes time. Why?
First, Putin wants to carry out a summer military campaign because he believes that we will be paired (and this last campaign is possible without mobilization).
Secondly, he needs to prepare Russia for a peaceful life and especially to close the issue with possible silent resistance of 30-35% of ura patriots, which are already a skeleton of an anti-Putin-patriotic minority. But minorities, theoretically, ready for aggression.
Third, he is preparing for Trump to stumble.
And its main external game is to become both the US and China before their future negotiations.
This is the foreign policy factor that we need to pay particular attention to. And here the game field is the world.
And already wrote about the game on the Black Sea, the same Putin will try to do in Iran, in Africa (especially the Safe region), will try to play something in Latin America, although there is little chance here ...
There will be no fast peace (its probability is low). But, in addition to a military and diplomatic campaign, we clearly lack an information campaign in the United States "Putin manipulates Trump."
The fact is that Putin has up to two months when he can pull time and find such points of influence on Trump that will allow the latter to close his eyes on manipulation. It will be unrealistic to pull the time - it will become too noticeable. And Trump will have two options: either impose sanctions against Russia, or switch to something else. Ukraine cannot switch to something else.
