The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine has warned of a high probability that Russia is preparing a large-scale armed provocation with a large number of casualties. According to Ukrainian intelligence estimates, such an action could be carried out on January 7 or on the eve of the holidays and is aimed at disrupting possible peace talks mediated by the United States of America.
The SVR notes that after the information campaign surrounding the so-called "attack on Putin's residence," the Kremlin is actively spreading falsified messages, trying to prepare domestic and international audiences for further escalation. According to intelligence, Russia may move from information manipulation to a real forceful provocation organized by special services.
"With a high probability, we predict a transition from manipulative influence to armed provocation by Russian special services with significant human casualties," the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine said.
Possible targets for such a provocation could be religious buildings or other objects with high symbolic value. The incident could be staged both on the territory of the Russian Federation itself and on the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.
According to the SVR, the Russian side plans to use fragments of Western-made attack drones to create false evidence of Ukraine's alleged involvement. These fragments may be specially delivered to the scene of the incident from the front line to enhance the propaganda effect.
In this regard, the Foreign Intelligence Service called on Ukrainian and international media to be especially cautious about statements and "evidence" that may be made public by the Kremlin, and to carefully verify information so as not to become a tool for spreading Russian fakes.
Earlier, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Ukraine allegedly attacked Vladimir Putin's residence on the night of December 29, after which Moscow would supposedly reconsider its negotiating position. The Ukrainian side officially denied these allegations, and the US National Security Agency confirmed that there was no attempt or attack.
