Ukraine, having concentrated its main reserves on the defense of Pokrovsk, has faced increased Russian pressure in the southeast. At the junction of Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, Russian troops have seized new territories in a few weeks and created an additional threat to Orekhov and Hulyaipol, which are of strategic importance for the defense of Zaporizhia. This is reported by the British edition of The Telegraph, citing pro-Ukrainian maps and assessments of Western analysts.
According to the publication, Ukrainian units are increasingly being transferred north to strengthen the defense of Pokrovsk. This makes the southeastern sector of the front more vulnerable to continuous Russian attacks and allows the occupation forces to “quietly” advance to bite off new pieces of Ukrainian territory. Over the past six weeks, the Russians in this area are estimated to have advanced about 19 miles (about 30 km).
The Russian offensive has intensified in the direction where the borders of the three regions converge. The aggressor is targeting local supply lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the work of Ukrainian drone operators, and is trying to use weakened fortifications for massive attacks by small assault groups. This tactic has been repeatedly used by Russia on other sections of the front - in particular, within the Novopavlovsk and Pokrovsk directions.
Analysts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warn that Russian troops are continuing their offensive towards Hulyaipol and the T-0401 highway, which connects Pokrovske in the Dnipropetrovsk region with Hulyaipol in Zaporizhia. This road is one of the key arteries supplying the Ukrainian group in the area of the city. According to ISW and Ukrainian sources, Russian units are advancing in the areas of settlements located to the northeast and east of Hulyaipol, trying to create a threat to its partial capture.
The British newspaper quotes military analyst Michael Coffman, who emphasizes that, despite the focus on the battles for Pokrovsk, the bulk of the Russian offensive is currently taking place “in the southwest – on the border of Zaporizhia, Dnipro and Donetsk regions.” According to him, Ukraine’s defenses around Hulyaipol look increasingly fragmented, and counterattacks and attempts to stabilize the situation in the Pokrovsk area mean that there are significantly fewer reserves in other areas, in particular Zaporizhia.
At the same time, the analyst notes that the Russian army traditionally remains ineffective in tactical terms: units often "claim" the capture of positions or advances that are not confirmed by independent sources. Against this background, the intensity of the occupiers' losses remains high, which forces Moscow to constantly bring up new forces and formations.
The context of the situation is also supplemented by recent reports from international media. For example, Reuters notes that Russia has announced the capture of several settlements in Zaporizhia region, including Malaya Tokmachka, which is considered the "gateway" to Orekhov. This increases the risk that the city may find itself under double pressure - both from the east and from the southeast.
The agency estimates that the Russians have advanced at least 30 km in southeastern Ukraine in recent weeks, and now control about 75% of the Zaporizhia region and about 19% of Ukraine as a whole. Moscow's strategic goal remains full control of Donbas, as well as all of Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, including Zaporizhia itself, which Ukraine holds.
Some Western and Ukrainian experts do not rule out that the current Russian advance in the area of Orekhov and Hulyaipol may have a distracting effect. The Kremlin may seek to force Kyiv to disperse its forces even more, transferring reserves to the Zaporizhia region and at the same time weakening the defense of Pokrovsk, where heavy fighting continues. However, the Ukrainian command maintains public restraint, limiting itself to reports of a “complicated but controlled” situation in the southeast.
Amid protracted fighting, shortages of personnel and ammunition, and constant Russian drone and air attacks, the task of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is to maintain a balance between the critically important Pokrov direction and the equally important line of defense on the approaches to Zaporizhia. The security of the large industrial center on the Dnieper and the stability of the entire southeastern front will largely depend on whether Kyiv manages to prevent a breakthrough in the Orekhov and Hulyaipol areas.
