Russia has already actually exceeded its mobilization plan for 2025. As of early December, about 403,000 people had been recruited into the ranks of the Russian army, which is close to the planned figures for the entire year.
This was stated by the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kirill Budanov. According to him, the main source of replenishment of the Russian armed forces remains contract soldiers, but the recruitment process itself is accompanied by serious difficulties.
The Russian government has been forced to regularly increase one-time payments for signing contracts. Their size varies by region, but these are significant amounts, used as a key incentive to recruit new soldiers. In this way, the Kremlin is trying to compensate for losses and maintain the size of the army without declaring an open general mobilization.
At the same time, the GUR notes that in 2026, Russia plans to recruit about 409,000 more people into the army, which indicates long-term plans for waging war and the expectation of constant renewal of personnel.
In parallel with the contract recruitment, Moscow is preparing mechanisms for the covert mobilization of reservists. This involves the involvement of those liable for military service under the guise of mandatory military service and reserve service. The relevant decisions allow for the call-up of an indefinite number of reservists without the formal announcement of a new wave of mobilization.
Analysts believe that the Russian authorities are trying to avoid the sharp social tensions associated with mass conscription, so they are relying on a gradual but constant involvement of the reserve and financial motivation of the population. This approach allows the Kremlin to continue the war without resorting to politically risky decisions.
