Recently, the topic of the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war has become relevant again. Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko analyzes the existing versions of a possible peace and explains why the search for an answer to this question is unlikely to yield anything.
When can the Russian-Ukrainian war end?
Recently, the topic of the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war has become relevant again. On this topic, articles appear, politicians, military and political analysts speak. Journalists ask: when can the Russian-Ukrainian war end?
However, the perception of the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war in Ukraine, and often in the West, is dominated by extremes far from reality.
Last year, we had wildly inflated expectations that in a little while, the West would give us tanks, and we would liberate all occupied territories, including Crimea. And then the war itself will end with our victory. These were very naive ideas about the end of the war.
Now such illusions have become much less in Ukraine. But faith in miracles remains. The notion that the war will end already this year thanks to the arrival of NATO troops in Ukraine is a kind of "victorious manilovshchyna" devoid of real grounds. Those who voice such theories should read Biden's message to the US Congress, in which the US president directly said that American soldiers will not fight in Ukraine. Loud statements of the French president about the possible presence of NATO troops in Ukraine have not met with the support of most of his colleagues in the North Atlantic Alliance. In addition, European NATO countries are not yet organizationally, resource-wise, and socio-psychologically ready for such a war that has been going on in Ukraine for over two years. But the main factor deterring NATO from directly participating in a war against Russia is the risk of nuclear war. This same risk has so far deterred Putin from attacking the neighboring countries of the West.
The other extreme consists in ideas that Russia will win the current war in just a little while. A recent article in Die Welt was written in this spirit. The author of this article suggests that American military aid to Ukraine will be drastically reduced, regardless of the outcome of the election, and that Europe lacks the "power and political will" to independently provide the necessary assistance with weapons. Ukraine, in his opinion, is unlikely to be able to hold the front, and Russia has enough resources and global support to continue the war for several more years. Therefore, the end of the war can happen already this year by freezing hostilities. How exactly this will happen, the author does not specify, but probably assumes that it will happen on Russia's terms. The article in Die Welt greatly exaggerates the existing problems and extrapolates them to the near future, while the opposite trends and factors are silenced or ignored.
The topic of ending the war through peace negotiations is also taken to extremes, especially in our country.
One extreme is waiting for a negotiated end to the war right now. It doesn't matter in what way and under what conditions. The main thing is that this war ends as soon as possible. Supporters of this position see a hint of possible peace in any Western publication on the subject, in any statement on the subject of peace by Putin or any of the Western leaders (such as Scholz). In this case, the wish comes true.
The exact opposite extreme is a conspiratorial and paranoid attitude to the very topic of ending the war through peace negotiations. Any political statement, discussion or even a purely academic article on the topic of peace negotiations is perceived as "treason", as a secret and criminal plan to secretly surrender Ukraine to Putin. Here, this point of view is presented publicly in us very clearly.
Hence the suspicious attitude towards the Global Peace Summit initiated by Ukraine. There will be no unforeseen consequences from this summit. This summit is not about ending the war and not about negotiations with Russia. Besides, Russia will not be at this summit. This summit is dedicated to the promotion of President Zelenskyi's Peace Formula and our position on the conditions for ending the war. For Russia, our conditions for ending the war (President Zelensky's peace formula) are unacceptable, just as Russian peace conditions are unacceptable for us. In this sense, the situation remains as hopeless as it was a year ago. What's more, the probability of peace talks has even decreased at this point. Russia is preparing for the escalation of the war and is ready for peace only on its terms, which have become much tougher and more ultimatum than two years ago in Istanbul. The West knows this well and understands that it is possible to force Putin into real peace negotiations only by stopping him in Ukraine.
Hence the very simple answer to the question of when the war will end: no one anywhere (neither in Moscow, nor in Kyiv, nor in Washington, Berlin or Paris, let alone in Die Welt) knows when the war will end. Currently, I do not see any real prerequisites (neither military nor political) for the end of the war in the next six months, with a high probability by the end of the year. I won't guess further. Most serious analysts believe that the Russian-Ukrainian war is unlikely to end before the end of the presidential elections in the USA. But this is not a decisive factor. The war may drag on for several more years, and its scale may go beyond the borders of Ukraine. At the same time, peace negotiations can be initiated in parallel, which, however, will not immediately lead to the end of the war.
The decisive factor in ending the war will be the course and results of hostilities, resource provision of the warring parties. But the conditions and the very possibility of ending the war will also be influenced by the development of socio-political and economic situations in Russia, Ukraine, the USA and the EU, and the general international situation. The conditions for the end of the war and when exactly it can end will depend on the combination of these factors.
