There are already thousands of Starlink satellites in low Earth orbit from Elon Musk's SpaceX, and over time, some of them, having reached the end of their service life, begin to fall into the Earth's atmosphere. According to American astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell, one or two Starlink satellites fall to the planet every day, and as the number of satellites grows, this number will only increase.
Since 2019, SpaceX has launched more than 8,000 Starlink satellites, and more than 2,000 this year. Other companies are also forming their own satellite constellations: Amazon plans to launch more than 3,000 internet satellites, with the first batch already in orbit since early 2025. Once all the American and Chinese constellations are fully deployed, there will be about 50,000 satellites in low orbit.
The short lifespan of Starlink satellites – about 5 years – means that they will re-enter Earth’s atmosphere and burn up after their mission. Scientists are concerned that the burned-up satellites will pollute the atmosphere with metals, potentially damaging the ozone layer.
The US Federal Aviation Administration warns that by 2035, about 28,000 pieces of Starlink satellites could fall annually. Previously, the probability of injury from space debris was practically zero, but in 10 years it could increase to 61%. McDowell predicts that soon at least five satellites will fall to Earth every day, and an increase in their number could cause uncontrolled collisions and the appearance of even more space debris.
Satellites can also fail prematurely due to solar activity, as strong solar storms often cause satellites to fall into the atmosphere. It is currently difficult to assess the scale of atmospheric metal contamination, but scientists are concerned about this.
