Donald Trump can win the presidential election in November 2024. Possible consequences for Ukraine and international politics are analyzed by political commentator Roman Shryk in Telegram.
Although there is no certainty that Trump has a clear plan, his loyalty to autocrats and critical attitude to aid to Ukraine among Trumpist congressmen suggest that further events may develop according to a certain scenario. It is likely that Trump will announce the end of aid to Ukraine and promise Putin to ignore the occupation of Ukrainian territories. According to the political observer, in this way, Ukraine will be offered a "whip", and Putin - a "carrot".
Three possible scenarios
Shrike considers three possible scenarios of the development of events:
1. Putin refuses
If Putin does not agree to Trump's proposal, it could provoke the former president to change course and continue supplying arms and other support to Ukraine. Although such a development seems unlikely, it is not excluded.
2. Putin agrees, but Ukraine does not
In this case, the war will continue, but without the support of the United States, it will be extremely difficult for Ukraine to conduct hostilities. This creates a situation where the country will once again be faced with a choice: to continue the struggle in a bloodless state or to enter into negotiations.
3. Both parties agree
If Putin and the Ukrainian authorities agree to Trump's terms, it could lead to a humiliating peace, up to the refusal to join NATO. Such a decision will seriously affect the morale of Ukrainian society, causing depression and internal instability.
Shryk notes that although there will not be a favorable election result for Ukraine, the EU, European countries, as well as budgets from the G7 (50 billion dollars) and NATO countries (40 billion euros) will continue to help. Even if the American part is deleted from the NATO budget, the amount will remain significant.
He also notes that Trump, being a real "bariga", can reduce everything to the fact that the USA will not provide direct aid, but will allow the sale of American weapons for money. This means that other countries and funds will be able to buy weapons for Ukraine, like Germany, which recently bought three Hymars.
Shrike concludes that in the event of Trump's victory, Ukraine will not have many territories left.
"In general, with a significant probability, in the event of Trump's victory, we will have control over only those territories that we can win back by the beginning of 2025. And even less if the war continues without US support.”
