After a brief flash of interest in peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, the war is once again returning to its usual course — by force. While delegations are demonstratively shaking hands in Istanbul, the Russian army is increasing pressure on the front, preparing a large-scale offensive campaign. Peace is being postponed for now — not for days, but for months. And it is the fighting on the front lines, not diplomatic gestures, that will dictate the course of the negotiations in the future. Journalist Denis Popovych gives a straightforward forecast: a hot summer lies ahead, not a cold “freeze.”.
"Whoever counted on a truce or a freeze - you're on the second floor, where they write science fiction. War has its own laws. It's not the negotiations that affect the front, but the front that affects the negotiations. And in the next six months, that's exactly what will happen," the journalist is sure.
Today, the war has passed a certain stage — a round of negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Istanbul.
And if a certain stage has passed, you can try to look into the future and once again engage in a thankless task - forecasting.
Negotiations are good, but this first round did not bring us closer to peace, as expected. Russia is preparing and even conducting a spring-summer offensive campaign, so all these negotiations so far look like a process for the sake of a process.
Only after the results of this campaign will any specifics be possible in the negotiation track. But this is not certain and in any case not before late autumn.
The main directions of the Russian army's offensive efforts may be as follows:
- The first one. Sumy region. It was published, by the way, by Volodymyr Medynskyi.
- The second is Kharkiv region: Kupyansk, Borova.
- The third is the Pokrovsky direction.
- The fourth is Novopavlivskyi.
- The fifth is Kostyantynivka.
In my opinion, it is around Kostyantynivka that the main combat events of the coming months will unfold, because it is here that the enemy is already making certain advances. First of all, from the Toretsk side.
Kostyantynivka is the gateway to the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. Without taking these cities, the Russians have no hope of capturing the Donetsk region.
Will the Russians take Konstantinovka before the start of the new heating season?
In my opinion, no. After the start, by the way, too. Although the front will be significantly closer to this city.
Will the enemy take Pokrovsk by autumn? In my opinion, no. And Chasiv Yar? Perhaps, although doubtful.
But will the Russians reach the administrative borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region in the Pokrovsk area or south of Pokrovsk? I think so. It is possible that the enemy will be able to enter the Dnipropetrovsk region.
So we are preparing for summer battles. I don't see any other options. But, in fact, there were none. Whoever counted on a truce or a freeze - you're on the second floor, where they write science fiction. War has its own laws. It's not the negotiations that affect the front, but the front that affects the negotiations. And in the next six months, that's exactly what will happen.
Denys Popovych, journalist
