After the war ends and the borders open, Ukraine may face a new stage of emigration — but it will not look like the first wave of 2022. This was stated by Ella Libanova, Director of the Ptukh Institute of Demography and Social Research of the NAS of Ukraine, in an interview with the YouTube channel "Orestokratiya".
According to Libanova, women who wanted to leave because of the war have mostly already left - together with their children. Those who have remained in Ukraine now, as a rule, do not plan to emigrate, also because the conditions for Ukrainian refugees in the EU are no longer as comfortable as in 2022: there is less and less free housing, benefits are being reduced, the labor market in many countries is saturated. This discourages the "new wave" of women from leaving.
But men can leave after the travel restrictions are lifted. Libanova explains this very pragmatically: if the wife and children have managed to settle down in Europe in two or three years — they have a job, housing, kindergarten or school, friends, clear rules — and the man himself has nothing to return to in Ukraine (destroyed housing, lost job, lack of stable income), then the logic of "I'm joining the family" becomes strong. That is, the risk of a second wave of migration after the war primarily concerns men of draft age, who are currently physically unable to leave, but will want to reunite with their families immediately after the borders open.
This directly affects demography and the labor market. The Institute of Demography has long warned that Ukraine will already have a shortage of workers after the war, and the additional departure of able-bodied men will complicate the restoration of infrastructure and the economy.
In parallel, outside Ukraine, political pressure is growing around the issue of Ukrainian refugees, especially men. In many EU countries, public attitudes towards Ukrainians have gradually become tougher compared to the first year of the full-scale invasion: assistance is no longer perceived as an "unconditional obligation", and the theme of "let them return and fight" is increasingly used by populists. This is especially noticeable in Poland.
Former Polish Prime Minister Leszek Miller has publicly stated that “there is one weapon with which Poland can help Ukraine” — to return to Ukraine Ukrainian men of military age who remained in the EU, and even to allow Polish law enforcement officers to detain such Ukrainians and hand them back. He claims that “it is strange to see millions of young men not fighting for their country.” These words have already provoked a sharp reaction, in particular from the Ukrainian side, which calls such rhetoric provocative.
That is, we have two opposing trends:
- within Ukraine, after the victory, there may be a completely rational departure of some men to their families in the EU;
- in Europe itself, political calls are increasingly being made that these men "should return to fight" and not remain abroad.
And this is not just an emotion, but a factor of security and the country's recovery. Because if after the war the borders are opened at the same time and some of the able-bodied men leave, it will be more difficult for Ukraine to rebuild cities where housing is destroyed and there is a shortage of workers. This is what Libanova calls the risk of a second migration wave.
