If the fighting does not stop next year, the front line will become even less mobile due to the sharp increase in the affected areas. This was stated by the commander of the separate UAV service of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army, Ashot Harutyunyan, in an interview with Ukrainian Radio.
According to him, if the war continues, "kill zones" — areas where infantry cannot move safely — will expand, and drones will become much more effective and autonomous.
The military emphasizes that in the near future, NRKs — ground-based robotic complexes capable of automatically shooting down drones — may appear on the battlefield. At the same time, new batteries and increased battery capacities will allow drones to fly further and longer.
“ This will simply increase the ‘kill zone.’ And a large increase in the ‘kill zone’ means that infantry cannot cross it. Accordingly, the front becomes ,” he explained.
Harutyunyan noted that a possible ceasefire would mean a ban on “deep strikes,” that is, strikes at long distances. In this case, specialists who are currently engaged in strategic strikes at 2,000–3,000 km would work on the front line.
Then the affected area can increase significantly:
«This “kill zone” of 30–40, maybe 100 km will now be carried out by the military, who previously flew thousands of kilometers… We will have another 100–150 km of “gray zone”, where you can move around, but not stop. Because as soon as a reconnaissance drone detects a box of ammunition, a wing with 100 kg of explosives will fly there».
According to Harutyunyan, the situation with the advantage in drones is ambiguous and depends on the type and range of their use.
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UAVs up to 50 km are a significant advantage for the Russians.
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Bombers up to 30 km are Ukraine's advantage.
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FPV drones are about parity.
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FPV on fiber optics is a likely advantage for the Russian Federation.
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Strategic strikes (Deep Strike) — Ukraine has effective solutions, but Russia "just doesn't have enough of them."
The military also noted that comparing the effectiveness of strikes is incorrect, because Ukraine is striking at infrastructure, and the Russian Federation is striking at cities.
" If we were to attack cities, we would have a 90% hit rate. And to get to the oil refinery, you have to try ," he emphasized.
