The summer offensive of the Russian army in Ukraine is unlikely to end with a strategic breakthrough. The most likely result is the minimum territorial achievements that the Kremlin will present as evidence of "success". This is stated in the analytical article The Economist with reference to Ukrainian military sources.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk in Donetsk region, as well as Sumy region, will become the main directions of the offensive. About 50,000 Russian soldiers are already concentrated on the northern border, which slowly but stubbornly moving to the regional center.
According to the publication, for the first time since the beginning of a full -scale invasion of the Russians demonstrate the same rate of advancement in the north and in the Donbass. The reason is weak fortifications and insufficient protection against drones.
However, even in spite of partial advancement, the front has almost never changed in three years. The Ukrainian military considers the current offensive "last jerk" designed to break the will to resist.
The commander of the Typhoon UAV unit Mikhail Kmetiuk explains that the Russians allow themselves to attack only because they are indifferent to losses. Up to 80% of mobilized do not survive, but waves of replenishment do not stop - monthly the Russian Federation mobilizes 10-15 thousand more than Ukraine. At the same time, Russia financially encourages its citizens, and Ukraine mainly relies on forced mobilization.
The officer of the 93rd Brigade with the call sign Edward warns that Ukraine's advantage in drones gradually disappears. The Russian Federation has created a new Rubicon unit that operates between Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk. This part first appeared near Kursk in 2024, directly subordinated to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and has access to the most modern technologies.
Rubicon uses the so-called uterine drones that trigger smaller apparatus equipped with optic fiber or ligaments at encrypted frequencies that are difficult to intercept. This creates serious challenges for the Armed Forces that have lost technological initiative in this segment.
Nevertheless, in three years the Russians have failed to capture strategically important cities - Konstantinovka is still under Ukrainian control. However, the war depletes both sides.
The police chief Konstantinovka Dmitry Kirdodkin summarizes the situation: “The problem with the Russians is that they are able to endure losses. Our losses are smaller, but we feel much more. ”
The Economist suggests that a diplomacy window may appear after this offensive is completed. But it is not guaranteed, because the main task of the Kremlin is not to win, but to keep control and "sell" a picture of changes on the map as an achievement for an internal audience.
Ukraine, despite the fatigue and technical difficulties, still believes in the opportunity to keep the front - even in a game for exhaustion, where the advantage on the side of the one who is more ready not to count the losses.
