What was considered effective against enemy missiles a year ago may no longer work today — this was the assessment given by Lieutenant General, former Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Igor Romanenko on the air of "Espresso". According to him, the Russian occupiers have modernized complexes for the use of ballistic missiles, as a result of which their strike capabilities have increased, and the chances of hitting these missiles with traditional interceptors have decreased.
Romanenko gave the examples of the Iskander-M and Kinzhal — the latter being a modification of the Iskanders adapted for launch from MiG-31 aircraft. Such changes, in particular in the missile software, have led to the fact that in the final section of the trajectory they perform maneuvers that make it difficult to intercept them. The general noted that because of this, “ the effectiveness of the destruction of our Patriot batteries has fallen from 42% to 6% .”
According to Romanenko, the Ukrainian side has already collected relevant data and statistics and transferred them to the manufacturers of air defense systems. He emphasized that a reaction from Western partners is necessary - in particular, possible correction of software and modernization of interceptors to increase their effectiveness. This is especially relevant in conditions when the number of Patriot batteries in Ukraine is limited.
This picture was also reflected in international media: the Financial Times reported that Russian missiles had learned to change their behavior on the final segment of their trajectory — to dive at a high angle or maneuver in such a way as to “confuse” Patriot interceptors. The publication cited cases where such modifications helped the Russian Federation strike Ukrainian facilities, in particular, enterprises that produce UAVs.
The expert also specified the technical limits of controllability of some types of missiles: in particular, he noted that the "Shaheeds" remain controllable at a distance of approximately 150 km, and to increase the range, the enemy deploys stationary launch pads. At the same time, the materials mentioned the British project "Octopus" - interceptor drones that are planned to be produced and supplied to counter Russian drones.
In conclusion, Romanenko called on partners to take into account new tactical and technical realities on the battlefield and to look for ways to update means of defeat and software in order to once again increase the chances of intercepting modernized missiles. Currently, according to him, experience and statistics have already been transferred to manufacturers, and how quickly these challenges can be met will depend on the reaction of the West.
