Ukraine is eliminating tax breaks to meet the International Monetary Fund's requirements for a new $8 billion program. In particular, it is about introducing VAT for self-employed individuals with an annual income of over UAH 1 million and eliminating the threshold for duty-free import of parcels worth up to EUR 150. This decision has become one of the most noticeable in the package of fiscal changes.
Against the backdrop of such innovations, the question of the effectiveness of the fight against the shadow economy, which, according to economists, reaches over 30% of GDP and leads to budget losses of tens of billions of hryvnias every year, is acute. Experts point out that instead of increasing the burden on small businesses, the state should focus on systemic schemes in key sectors of the economy.
The Bureau of Economic Security, which regularly reports on the fight against excise crimes, import violations, smuggling, and illegal gambling, has been at the center of criticism. At the same time, the most powerful players in the shadow market, according to experts, often remain beyond real control.
One such example is the activities of the online casino FavBet, which is associated with a Russian citizen, Andrey Matyukha. Despite many years of suspicions of operating without licenses, criminal proceedings and millions of losses to the budget, the structures associated with FavBet continue to operate. According to sources, the BEB's actions against them are mainly formal in nature.
A similar situation is observed around the online casino Pin-Up, which was mentioned in investigations into miscoding schemes that allowed hiding real financial turnover.
Another area that brings huge losses to the budget is tobacco smuggling. Despite periodic reports of the exposure of underground production, a number of key enterprises continue to evade the attention of law enforcement agencies.
According to market sources, one of these facilities is a factory in Goshcha (Ukrainian Tobacco Production LLC), which is linked to schemes of fictitious destruction of raw materials and production without purchasing excise stamps. Representatives of an influential group, known in the industry as "Monakovets", appear in these operations.
Separately, experts remind us of the fuel sector: the BRSM-Nafta network was mentioned in previous investigations in connection with the use of alcohol as an illegal gasoline additive. According to estimates, this led to a shortfall in budget revenues of approximately UAH 5 billion.
The agricultural industry also remains one of the most problematic sectors. According to financial analysts, the Chinese company COFCO has been suspected for years of schemes with fictitious grain, VAT manipulation, and large-scale tax "twists." These operations alone are estimated to cost the budget up to UAH 50 billion annually.
Despite numerous signals and investigations, no real fixes were made to the scheme's operation.
Analysts warn that without real strengthening of control over the shadow sectors, tax innovations may have limited effect. Instead of increasing revenues, there is a risk of further pressure on legal small businesses, while system players will continue to operate according to the old rules.
