According to senior military officials, due to a significant advantage in the number of troops and air defense systems, Russia has the opportunity to break through to the front line and break it in some areas. They warn that there is a serious risk of destruction of the front line in Ukraine where the Russian generals will focus their future offensive. It is noted that currently Ukraine does not have enough powerful technologies to compensate for the large mass of troops that may be deployed by the enemy. This information is provided by the publication Politico, which refers to high-ranking officials of the Ukrainian military. In recent days, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, has warned that without the approval of a multi-billion dollar aid package in the US Congress, the troops will have to gradually retreat. He also noted that some large cities may be in danger of falling. The warning expressed by Zelenskyi is considered part of an active diplomatic campaign to obtain military aid, which the Ukrainian forces so badly need. The authors of the article indicate that even if the aid package is approved by the US Congress, there may not be enough reinforcements to prevent major changes on the battlefield. This is especially relevant in the context of election campaigns in America and Europe, which can put pressure on negotiations beneficial to Russia. For now, it all depends on where Russia decides to direct its troops during the upcoming offensive, which is likely to begin this summer. In recent weeks, Russian missile and drone attacks on infrastructure in Ukraine have increased significantly, which causes certain concerns about the direction of the enemy's main attack.
High-ranking Ukrainian military officials, who worked under the command of ex-commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny, express their fears about the military situation. According to them, the military picture currently looks bleak. Officers say that there is a significant risk of front line destruction in those places where the Russian generals decide to concentrate their offensive. In addition, thanks to a significant advantage in the number of personnel and the use of guided aerial bombs, Russia can probably make a breakthrough to the front line and break it in separate areas, according to senior military officials.
"In this context, there is nothing to help Ukraine, as there are no serious technologies capable of compensating for the considerable mass of troops that Russia is likely to mobilize against us. We do not have such technologies, and they are not enough in the West, either," emphasizes one of the sources among high-ranking military officials.
Only Ukrainian courage and resilience, as well as the mistakes of Russian commanders, can now change this gloomy dynamic, the interlocutor adds. However, he emphasizes that relying solely on the enemy's mistakes is not a strategically advantageous strategy.
Senior officials expressed their disappointment at the West's delay in providing aid. They argue that the supply of weapons and military equipment is arriving too late and in insufficient quantities to effectively change the situation at the front.
"Zaluzhnyi called it a 'war of one incident.' He meant that weapons systems become obsolete very quickly due to the rapid adaptation of Russian forces. For example, we successfully used some missiles, but it was short-lived. Russians learn quickly. They prevent us from making similar mistakes a second time. And they succeed in this," explains one of the officers.
Senior officials note that some weapons, such as anti-tank missiles provided by Britain and the United States, arrived in time and helped to maintain the defense. But other types of weapons arrive too late, when they lose their relevance, they add.
About a dozen F-16s are expected to be ready this summer after basic pilot training is completed. According to one of the officers, each type of weapon has its own optimal time. “F-16s were needed already in 2023; they will not be suitable for 2024," he said. He explained that this is due to Russia's readiness to confront them: "In the last few months, we have noticed that the Russians are launching rockets with Dzhanka in the north of Crimea, but without explosive warheads. At first we didn't understand what they were doing, but then we realized that they were rangefinders." The officer explained that Russia strategically calculates where to best place its S-400 missile and radar systems to maximize the targeting area of the F-16s, keeping them away from the front lines and away from their logistics hubs.
Currently, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) need 4 million shells, 2 million drones and a lot of other military equipment. Officers noted that more basic conventional weapons are needed, as well as drones. "We need howitzers and shells, hundreds of thousands of rockets and shells," said one of them, indicating the need for 4 million shells and 2 million drones. "We constantly appealed to our Western partners for help, as we have combat experience and understanding of this war. They have resources, and they should help us," he added.
Europe is also trying to help Ukraine compensate for the lack of artillery shells. However, the proposed procurement of ammunition for Ukraine may not be sufficient, as Ukraine needs far more ammunition than is being offered. Officers stressed that many more people were needed. Currently, the country lacks people on the front lines, which complicates the problem of insufficient support from the West.
At the same time, Ukraine is shying away from large-scale conscription due to concerns about the political consequences. However, officials say Russia is gathering resources and will be ready to launch a major attack, possibly as early as August.
