"During the celebration of the New Year, when many people celebrated it with fireworks, a good mood and the company of relatives, Ukrainians witnessed massive airstrikes by the Russian military. These attacks lead to the destruction of their homes and the loss of loved ones, reports British historian and writer Timothy Garton Ash in his column for The Financial Times.
"Vladimir Putin intends to defeat and destroy independent Ukraine, which in turn is ready to resist. However, the question posed by Garton Ashe concerns what other democratic countries of the world want in this epic confrontation," the author writes.
According to him, the answer that the world will give in 2024 will be decisive for the future of Europe and important for understanding the forces of democracy and autocracy at the beginning of the 21st century. Garton Ash believes that there is currently no basis for a frozen conflict in Ukraine or a solution to the issue through negotiations with Russia, as it may naively appear in the West.
"We are in the middle of a long and complex war that will probably last at least until 2025, if not longer," he notes. "Even one of the parties can emerge as the winner, but both will probably not give in."
Putin uses all his advantages, such as scale, ruthlessness and dictatorial style of governance in the Russian Federation, and has the support of other similar regimes abroad, including in Iran, North Korea and China.
Ukraine faces an important choice, in particular, whether it should undertake to call up many young men for military service to restore "its tired and exhausted forces." However, the decisive factor, according to the historian, will be the choice made by the democracies supporting Kyiv, that is, its Western allies, in the coming months.
Now, according to his conviction, Western countries are doing enough for Ukraine to avoid defeat, but not enough to help it win. "In 2024, we could give Kyiv the tools to take back more territory and convince Russia that it cannot win. This is the only way to a lasting peace," the author of the article believes.
He also expresses the opinion that it is necessary to immediately strengthen Ukraine's air defense and supply more long-range missiles, including the German Taurus and the American ATACMS. This, according to him, will help Ukraine retreat Putin's Black Sea Fleet and move against "his strategic and symbolic stronghold in Crimea."
However, according to the conclusions of the latest study by the Ministry of Defense of Estonia, the long-term success factor for Kyiv will be the intensive training of Ukrainian troops and an immediate significant increase in the industrial production of weapons and ammunition, reports Timothy Garton Ash.
The author notes that less than a third of the one million artillery shells that the European Union promised to deliver to Ukraine by March have been received so far. It is noted that the differences between democracies and dictatorships are that democracies cannot act by command, and their political system requires leaders to agree on clear strategic goals and convince voters and parliaments to approve the necessary measures.
Even in the light of the possible crisis caused by the second term of Donald Trump, it becomes obvious that the USA, taking into account the crisis of its own country's democracy, is in no hurry to make such decisions.
Thus, according to the historian, the responsibility for these steps lies with Europe, since it is about the protection of a European country in the end.
Garton Ash examines the New Year addresses of European leaders and provides them with a comparative analysis.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak did not include a mention of the war in Ukraine in his report on the successes of his government, which is probably related to the holding of this year's parliamentary elections.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz mentioned the conflict only in passing, turning to the main topic of his country's economy.
The new Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk, took it upon himself to dedicate his speech to the restoration of democracy in his country.
French President Emmanuel Macron focused on the topic of French pride and expressed the idea of "rearming European sovereignty", in particular with the aim of "stopping Russia and supporting Ukrainians".
The most important, according to the historian, was the address of the President of Finland Sauli Niiniste: "Europe must wake up."
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen expressed a straightforward position, reminding that Ukraine lacks ammunition and Europe does not provide the necessary assistance.
"We are focused on increasing European production. This is an urgent need. Danish F16s will soon take to the skies again. The war in Ukraine is also a war for Europe, as we know it," she noted.
Garton Ash believes that it is precisely this diverse approach that is important in these times. Speaking about military leadership, he recalled Winston Churchill's statement about the need for "blood, work, tears and sweat", but notes that in this case Ukraine is already making an important contribution, and what is needed from others is clarity of thought, determination and reasonable allocation of resources.
