In 2025, the salaries of Ukrainians will continue to increase, although the rates will be slightly more modest than this year. This is stated in the published "Inflation Report" of the National Bank of Ukraine.
According to the new forecast, the nominal salary will increase by 17.07%next year, and the real one will increase by 3.9%. It is even slightly higher than expected in January, when the regulator predicted 16.7% and 3.8%, respectively.
The main factors of increase are chronic shortage of skilled workers and revival of economic activity. In the context of economic recovery, labor demand exceeds supply that causes businesses to offer higher wages.
"The discrepancies between the demand and the supply of skilled labor will lead to further salaries in the private sector," the NBU explained.
At the same time, the National Bank pays attention to the risks. The increase in wages is currently ahead of the growth rate of labor productivity. In 2023, nominal wages increased by 17.4%, real - by 3.7%. In 2024, the figures are even higher: 23.2% in nominal and 15.6% in real dimension. This creates additional inflation pressure that the regulator plans to control monetary tools.
Despite some relief of the situation due to the partial return of migrant workers, the problem of staff shortage will not be possible to solve quickly. According to the NBU experts, the return will be gradual, and the personnel deficit will remain tangible in the coming years.
The forecasts for the following years are as follows:
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2025: nominal wage growth - 17.07%, real - 3.9%;
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2026: nominal growth - 9.4%, real - 3.3%;
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2027: nominal growth - 8.8%, real - 3.5%.
The National Bank reassures: since 2025, the growth rate of wages will gradually slow down, and inflation pressure will decrease accordingly.
