Ukraine needs a significant expansion of its armed forces and significant support of the West to restrain Russian aggression both in the event of a fighting and after a possible ceasefire. According to the Institute of War Study (ISW), without these measures, Russia can use any pause in the war to prepare new offensive actions.
ISW analysts emphasize that the current front line of more than 2100 km does not give Ukraine a strategic depth for effective defense. This means that even in the event of ceasefire, Russian troops will remain in dangerous closeness to key Ukrainian cities:
- Kherson - occupiers are located on the other bank of the Dnieper.
- Zaporozhye - the enemy is only 25 km from the city.
- Kharkiv - Russians can quickly attack, 30 km.
If the war is temporarily stopped at these positions, ISW predicts that the Russian Federation will use this time to strengthen its forces and prepare new offensive operations. Particularly threatening is the situation on the Dnieper, where the Russian army can organize a crossing, increasing its chances of breakthrough.
According to ISW, the US and Europe should not only increase the amount of assistance to Ukraine, but also provide it much more promptly. The closer the ceasefire line is to the current positions of the Russian troops, the more resources will have to be allocated to support Ukrainian defense in the future.
Western analysts emphasize that if Ukraine has to defend itself along the current front line, its army should become even more and more powerful. However, the active involvement of Western military consultants and technologies will be actively involved in effective protection.
The Kremlin will not give up aggression
Experts are convinced that Putin will not abandon his goals for Ukraine, even if the fire cease. Moscow is already building large -scale military infrastructure in the occupied territories:
- Highways and railway routes are erected, which should provide a rapid transfer of troops in the event of a new offensive.
- There is a concentration of reserves for possible assaults of Ukrainian cities.
In fact, the Russians are already preparing for the next stage of the war today, and therefore, Ukraine should not only strengthen the defense, but also look for strategic opportunities to improve their positions.
It is possible to stop the future storm of Russia only if Ukraine receives:
- Rapid supply of weapons from the US and Europe, including long -range artillery and rockets.
- Increasing air defense, which will prevent air attacks and destruction of infrastructure.
- Creating a strategic depth, that is, the rejection of Russian troops on more favorable for Ukraine defense.
Without these factors, even a temporary stopping of hostilities can only be a release before a new escalation.
