The only reason why full -scale general mobilization has not been announced in Ukraine is the possibility of holding elections in the fall of 2025. The editorial staff became known from sources in the Presidential Office. According to them, the main restraining factor is the position of Donald Trump's administration, which insists on the restoration of the democratic cycle of government in Ukraine.
It is a full election at all levels: presidential, parliamentary and local. For the US, this is critical as an indicator that even in the state of war, Ukraine does not depart from the principles of democracy. It is because of this that the President's office has chosen the tactics of waiting and will not hurry with the launch of new waves of mobilization.
"The Bankova is well aware that the mass coverage of the male population by military duty in the midst of the possible election process can cause internal tension and undermine confidence in the institutions ," - explains the interlocutor close to the political leadership of the country.
In addition, the Ukrainian authorities are trying to preserve a certain shunting space to respond to a change in the foreign policy situation. According to unofficial information, Trump has already transmitted a clear signal through diplomatic channels: if Kiev fails to meet the election requirements, further assistance can be revised. That is why the OP avoid the final decisions and do not force mobilization plans.
Against this background, double tension was actually formed in the country: on the one hand, there is a lack of reserves on the front, on the other - political uncertainty and risks of legitimacy of power in the near future.
The final decision on mobilization and elections is expected to be made in the second half of the summer. It all depends on the US position, the state of the front and the level of public support. But now it is clear: the issue of mobilization is not only military but deeply political.
