Analysts of one of the largest banks in the world JPMorganchase have stated that ceasefire in Ukraine is possible in July 2025. About it reports "Glavcom" with reference to the geopolitical review of the bank. The forecast is based on the analysis of current rates of hostilities and diplomatic dynamics around the war.
According to experts, even in the event of further promotion of Russian troops at the present pace, the full capture of Ukraine could last more than a hundred years. This forces the parties to look for a political decision - even temporary.
JPMorgan claims that the war has already entered its final phase - the so -called "endshpil". A probable option for developments is ceasefire without concluding a full peace agreement, by analogy with conflict in Georgia.
Analysts consider four scenarios of end of war:
1. South Korea Scenario (15%)
Ukraine retains control of most territories, receives security guarantees from the West, but does not enter NATO. Instead, it is restored at the expense of $ 300 billion of frozen Russian assets. This is the most optimistic option, but also one of the least probable ones.
2. Israel scenario (20%)
Ukraine receives strong military and economic support from the West, maintaining the ability to restrain Russia. However, the threat of war does not disappear. This option is possible without the placement of foreign troops in the Ukrainian territory.
3. Georgia Scenario (50%)
The most likely, according to JPMorgan. Ukraine is losing some support, Western aid is declining, and European integration slows down. The risk of political instability is increasing, and Russia's influence is increasing.
4. Belarus scenario (15%)
The worst option. If the United States refuses support and Europe will not be able to compensate for this gap, Russia imposes capitulation conditions for Ukraine. This will mean the defeat of Ukraine and the destruction of the world order.
