The Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region became one of the most important events of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which has the potential to radically change the dynamics of the conflict. This was written by Andreas Umland, an analyst at the Swedish Institute of International Relations, for Foreign Policy.
According to his analysis, the last few days demonstrated a significant breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) on the territory of Russia, which became the largest territorial advance of Ukrainian forces since the counteroffensive in Kharkiv and Kherson in the fall of 2022. At the moment, the situation remains unclear, but more and more footage of captured Russian military personnel and destroyed equipment is appearing online.
According to Umland, the operation demonstrates Ukraine's ability to create the effect of surprise and effectively use sudden breakthroughs, which Russia has not been able to achieve since the beginning of the conflict. This is the first case of foreign troops invading Russian territory since World War II, showing Russians that the war is now taking place not only in Ukraine, but also on their territory.
The West appears to have approved the operation. Both the White House and the EU said that the decision to conduct the operation should be made by Ukraine itself, despite previous warnings about the possibility of the start of the Third World War or a nuclear conflict. Thus, Ukraine is trying to erase fears about the "red line" that should not be crossed.
The operation of the Armed Forces makes it clear to the dictator Vladimir Putin that Ukraine retains a significant potential to inflict serious blows on Russia. If Ukrainian forces are able to hold on to the captured territories, this could strengthen their position in possible negotiations to end the war.
Umland notes that Kyiv may be seeking to strengthen its position for potential negotiations, especially given growing war fatigue among the Ukrainian population and growing criticism from the international community over the lack of dialogue with the Russian Federation. Ukraine's strategic position remains risky, even if Western military support is maintained.
Zelensky's gamble
According to the analyst, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi may try to change the dynamics of the conflict and gain more leverage if the negotiations start earlier than expected. Although Ukraine does not yet have enough leverage to dictate terms, Kyiv can appeal to moral and legal arguments in dialogue with foreign partners.
The latest operation by the Armed Forces may hasten the end of the conflict, forcing both sides to seek diplomatic solutions.
