With the entry into force of the CBAM carbon tax in the European Union from 2026, Ukraine may face serious economic losses. According to the GMK Center, between 2026 and 2030, total export losses may exceed $4.6 billion, and after 2030, the country may stop exporting cement, fertilizers, iron, square billets, and rolled products.
Impact on exports
After the blockade of the sea ports due to the war, the main trade partner of Ukraine became the EU. However, the introduction of CBAM will create additional barriers for Ukrainian exporters. It is expected that 15-17% of Ukrainian exports to the EU will fall under the influence of this environmental tax. In 2023, Ukrainian exports of goods subject to CBAM amounted to $3.6 billion, of which 93% accounted for ferrous metallurgy products.
GMK Center analysts warn that losses due to CBAM will increase. In 2026, the first year of full implementation of the tax, export losses could reach $202 million, and by 2030 this figure could reach $1.4 billion.
GDP losses
Losses of the Ukrainian economy may be even greater due to cross-industry connections. For example, in 2026, GDP losses could reach $790 million, and in 2030 - up to $4.9 billion. This indicates that the negative impact of CBAM will not be limited to the export sector, but will also affect other sectors of the economy.
The importance of exporting to the EU
Exports to the EU are vital for Ukrainian companies: in the first six months of 2024, Ukrainian companies exported 56.2% of their goods to the EU. Therefore, the introduction of CBAM will worsen the economic situation in Ukraine. This, in turn, contradicts the strategic interests of the EU, which supports Ukraine, since maintaining trade relations will allow Ukraine to integrate into the European economy and support the financial capabilities of the state budget.
The "Ukrcement" association has already stated that paying the CBAM environmental duty on general terms will lead to the loss of competitiveness of Ukrainian manufacturers. Therefore, the government should initiate negotiations to join CBAM on declaratory terms, which would allow duty-free reporting, citing war as a force majeure event under European law.
As Politico notes, Europe is helping Ukraine financially, but at the same time it is introducing the CBAM carbon tax, which could lead to a loss of €1.4 billion every year. These losses can be avoided by conducting negotiations with the EU, as the law on CBAM provides for the possibility of obtaining benefits in case of force majeure. Given the current situation in Ukraine, there is every reason to ask the EU for a delay in this matter.
