The British newspaper The Telegraph called the exodus of young men from Ukraine “potentially fatal news” for the country’s defense. According to columnist Owen Matthews, the Armed Forces are facing an acute shortage of personnel, while the EU is increasingly raising the question: why are Ukrainian men of military age leaving for Europe, while Western governments have to continue to finance the war against Russia.
The Telegraph claims that the human resource problem in Ukraine has entered a critical phase. The publication refers to official data from the prosecution that since the beginning of the full-scale war, the Ukrainian prosecutor's office has opened about 290 thousand criminal cases for desertion. On the front line, according to the newspaper's interlocutors, many units are staffed by 50%, and in some places - by a third. Major Yegor Checherynda describes the situation as follows: "Our front-line units are staffed by about 50%. Many positions remain understaffed due to the lack of a sufficient number of recruits and mobilization." Former officer of the Azov regiment Bohdan Krotevych speaks of an even worse picture - only about a third of the required number in some parts of the front. At the level of estimates, this means a deficit of about 200 thousand soldiers, who are simply not there now to hold the line of defense against a significantly larger Russian group.
This personnel crisis is exacerbated by another factor: the outflow of young men abroad. In August, the government relaxed the wartime rule for the first time since the invasion, allowing men aged 18 to 22 to travel outside Ukraine. Officially, this was explained as an attempt not to cut off the younger generation from the world and not to force families to take boys away before they came of age; in Kyiv, it was hoped that a more liberal regime of departure would maintain contact with them and give them a chance to return later - with a desire to serve under a contract, rather than flee from forced mobilization.
The reaction to this norm was immediate. According to the Polish border service, cited by The Telegraph, almost 100 thousand Ukrainians aged 18–22 crossed the border with Poland in about two months after the rules were changed at the end of August 2025. For comparison: from January to the end of August, that is, before the easing of departures, only about 45 thousand men of this age group entered Poland. After the change of rules, the figure actually doubled and reached an average of about 1,600 young men per day. A similar trend is recorded in Germany: according to German sources, the number of Ukrainians aged 18–22 arriving each week increased from a few dozen to 1,400–1,800 people per week in October.
This mass movement is becoming a political argument in the EU. In Poland and Germany, where young Ukrainians are heading, irritation is growing: local politicians are increasingly asking why European taxpayers should finance the supply of weapons and social support for refugees, if a significant part of men of military age do not fight, but receive asylum and benefits in European Union countries.
Against this backdrop, open political proposals are emerging that would have been unthinkable a year ago. Lithuanian Defense Minister Laurinas Kasciunas has suggested that one solution to Kyiv's "urgent need for recruits" could be to return conscript-age men back to Ukraine. In Germany, the leader of the Bavarian Christian Social Union, Markus Söder, called the idea of discussing sending Ukrainians fit for service home to defend their own country "completely legitimate." Such statements echo last year's discussions in the EU about the possibility of forming a "Ukrainian legion" abroad and increase pressure on Kyiv: allies are less and less willing to be just a rear guard if those whom Kyiv itself calls the "mobilization reserve" continue to go to the rear.
The Telegraph adds another threat: Russia is deliberately targeting the energy sector, trying to make large Ukrainian cities uninhabitable in winter. The Kremlin's idea, according to Western analysts, is simple - the cold and darkness will push civilians to the EU borders, and Europe, already tired of war and having paid a high social price for accepting millions of refugees, will become increasingly nervous. German security services have already officially warned their government about the risk of a new large wave of Ukrainian refugees this winter precisely because of the cuts to heat and electricity.
This story is about more than “someone escaped.” It’s about a resource without which Ukraine will not be able to fight, and about the political fatigue of the allies. The Telegraph puts it bluntly: if the current rate of losses on the front is combined with a new wave of young men leaving, then Ukraine risks losing its most valuable resource — people. Without this resource, not only victory is impossible, but also the very future of the country.
Official Kyiv is publicly trying to downplay the drama. State Border Service representative Andriy Demchenko admitted that the departure of men aged 18–22 is recorded, but called it “small in the overall passenger flow.” The Ukrainian authorities also explain the new departure rules by the desire to keep young citizens within the legal framework, not to sever the state’s ties with the generation that grew up in the war, and not to allow this age group to be completely alienated.
But even if the government's position sounds like an attempt to keep young people "in touch with Ukraine," the political background around the topic is changing. The EU openly says that support for Kyiv will be increasingly difficult to explain to voters if, at the same time, more and more Ukrainian men of draft age appear in European capitals. In Ukraine itself, the issue is also becoming toxic: the military command has long been talking about a shortage of manpower, but the mobilization age has not been lowered, and any hints of the forced return of men from abroad cause public shock.
As a result, the situation looks like a vicious circle. The war has been going on for the third winter and shows no signs of ending soon. The allies are sending weapons, but they are setting political conditions. Ukraine is trying to avoid losing a generation and maintain the front, but is paying for it with another outflow of people. And this is what, according to Western observers, makes the current moment the most dangerous in the entire time of a full-scale war: without people there will be no army, without an army there will be no front, without a front there will be no country.
