The debate between President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump took place in the United States this week, causing a wide response with the threat of impact on the future political landscape, including relations with Ukraine.
Past debates have shown that Biden may well lose the election to Trump in November, unless some drastic changes take place. And this puts the Democratic Party in front of a difficult choice - to lead Biden to the elections or to replace him with another candidate.
However, the Democrats currently do not have people with a rating that could compete with Trump. And there is a risk that the new candidate may take even less votes than the current president.
For Ukraine, there is one conclusion so far - Trump's victory in the elections has become even more likely. And Kyiv needs to prepare for the fact that a person who has repeatedly expressed skepticism about providing military and financial aid to Ukraine may become the president of the United States.
And she never once said, unlike Biden, that Russia should return all captured territories to Ukraine, as well as suffer defeat in this war.
Judging by the statements of his advisors, Trump intends to bring Kyiv and Moscow to the negotiating table and freeze the war, leaving the issue of territories behind bars, that is, in fact, leaving the part of Ukraine captured by Russia under the control of the Russian Federation. Which completely contradicts Zelenskyi's formula, which provides for the withdrawal of Russian troops to the borders of 1991.
Or, as a minimum program, the US president can simply withdraw from Ukraine, stop funding it and let Europe solve this problem on its own borders.
Thus, the possible victory of Trump creates very difficult challenges for the Ukrainian leadership. And the debate made such a perspective, albeit not one hundred percent - but noticeably closer.
Probably, considering these threats, Ukraine is trying to hijack the negotiation agenda. And to form a base for him by the time of Trump's probable "coming" at the end of 2024.
Zelenskyy said yesterday that a plan to end the war will be prepared "this year".
"It is very important for us to show a plan to end the war that the majority of the world will support. This is the diplomatic way we are working on. Not everything depends on us, our production of technology, drones, artillery is really increasing because we have to be strong on the battlefield. Because Russia understands nothing but force. These are two parallel processes: to be strong and to develop a detailed, understandable plan, and it will be ready this year," Zelenskyi said.
It should be noted that the Ukrainian peace plan has long been presented by Zelenskyi. It provides for the withdrawal of Russian troops to the borders. However, many countries of the world, especially representatives of the "global South", consider it unrealistic.
That is, some new plan will probably be prepared - taking into account the military and geopolitical realities emerging at that moment. And it is possible that it will be closer to Trump's plans for ending the war on the front line than Zelensky's former "peace formula".
Another option is also not excluded - that the Biden administration, if he still remains the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party, will try to stop the war in Ukraine even before the elections in order to knock this trump card out of Trump's hands. But a quick end to the war, taking into account the current state of affairs on the battlefield, is possible only along the current front line. And also under the condition of some important concessions from the West to Putin, so that he agrees to withdraw the demand for the transfer of the entire territory of the Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions to the Russian Federation.
However, so far, such a scenario looks difficult to implement from all sides.
In this regard, there is often a version that in the coming months the Armed Forces will attempt a major offensive with the aim of liberating part of the territories and, thereby, improving the negotiating position and the general state of affairs for Kyiv on the eve of Trump's possible return to the White House, in order to show him that Ukraine has a chance to seize the initiative in the war, and therefore it is worth continuing to provide support.
However, so far only the Russian public is writing about the possible offensive of the Armed Forces. From the Ukrainian side, as we can see, there are statements about the preparation of a new "plan for the end of the war".
