Considering the possibility of a new wave of fan outages, the demand for primary housing in Ukraine may drop by an average of 50%. However, according to Marianna Bigunets, sales director of the construction company GAZDA, this reduction will be temporary. Demand is expected to recover as soon as the energy situation stabilizes. She told UNIAN about this.
In addition to the reduction in demand, a slowdown in the pace of construction is also expected, especially in the initial stages of projects, which currently account for about 35-40% of the total volume of construction work. At the same time, according to Bigunets, the ratio between demand and real sales will remain unchanged, which indicates the stability of the market, even in wartime conditions.
Factors affecting demand
The demand for housing until the end of the year will be determined by the level of security in the region, the stage of construction, the area and cost of housing, as well as the convenience of purchase conditions. The main requested region remains Western Ukraine, where 45-50% of solvent demand is concentrated (the cities of Lviv, Uzhhorod, Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk). Kyiv with its suburbs is also active (about 20%), while Odesa and other regions have a smaller share.
The impact of US policy on the market
Among the factors of uncertainty is the possible influence of the new US president's policy towards Ukraine. About 20% of potential buyers decided to postpone the purchase of housing while waiting for clarification of the situation. However, the expert emphasizes that demand may gradually recover when the position of the new head of the White House becomes clear.
Economic situation and exchange rate fluctuations
The cost of construction of objects that began in the second quarter of 2024 was planned at the exchange rate of UAH 45-47 per dollar, and the weighted average exchange rate for the entire construction cycle was expected at the level of UAH 43-44 per dollar. Due to low demand in the summer, price increases were modest, especially in wartime conditions, except in some western regions.
