The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) announced a revision of the Ukrainian GDP growth forecast for 2025, reducing it from 6% to 4.7%. This is stated on the official website of the financial organization.
Reasons for revising the forecast
EBRD experts note that problems with the supply of electricity have already led to the interruption of "substantial" growth in GDP, which was observed during four quarters. This led to the need to revise estimates of Ukraine's economic development for the next year.
Positive forecasts for 2024
Despite the deterioration of the forecast for 2025, the EBRD's economic forecasts for Ukraine are not unequivocally "pessimistic". Experts forecast GDP growth at the level of 3% in 2024, despite serious strikes by Russian troops on energy facilities.
Funding and Challenges
Experts believe that international partners have partially covered Ukraine's needs for 2024, but the amount of funding for the next year remains uncertain. In addition, the country faces a labor shortage, as well as the risk of further destruction of infrastructure and production capacity.
Dynamics of GDP growth
According to the Ministry of Economy, in September 2024, the economy of Ukraine grew by 3.5% compared to August 2023. Earlier in July, GDP growth accelerated to 2.7% from 1.6% in June, which experts said was driven by an early harvest. For January-July 2024, growth is estimated at 4.0% [±1%].
