The White House wants Ukraine to change its strategy from offensive to defensive.
This message from Biden to Zelensky at the Davos will be conveyed by US President's advisor Sullivan, writes Bloomberg columnist Andreas Kluth.
“ Zelensky understands why this makes sense, although he would not like to talk about it publicly,” the author believes.
For the sake of maintaining morale in Ukraine, “Zelensky feels he must continue to deny the military stalemate.”.
The author writes that the meeting organized by Ukraine in Davos to rally as many countries as possible around Zelensky's peace formula also became a "dead end." "But Russia wasn't invited, and China didn't show up, so everyone knows it's a dead end," Klut believes.
In his opinion, after the failure of the counteroffensive and high losses, “there can be no question” of an offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. But Russia, the author believes, will focus mainly on holding the captured territories until the US presidential election “in the hope that Donald Trump will return to the White House.”.
At the same time, he points to the difference in potential between Ukraine and the Russian Federation.
“Putin has transformed Russian society into a war economy. The Kremlin will spend 8% of GDP on its military by 2024, exceeding social spending for the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russian factories produce cartridges and bombs, and their partners Iran and North Korea send even more. Ukraine has fewer resources,” Klut writes.
Therefore, in his opinion, “Zelensky is right to reject the West’s repeated calls for a ceasefire.”.
“Russia will use the pause to rearm and replenish supplies, in order to later resume a full-scale attack on Ukrainian society. But Ukraine may not receive more money and weapons from the West during the same truce. Thus, a ceasefire now may be tantamount to surrender in the future,” Klut writes.
“The most shocking thing here is how much the West has already betrayed Kyiv,” the author adds. Therefore, he believes, Zelensky should set Sullivan a condition for switching to defense – increased arms supplies.
