Former US President Donald Trump's decision to transfer Patriot air defense systems and other weapons to Ukraine has become the most high-profile military promise from Washington in the past year. According to The Wall Street Journal, this is a supply package with an estimated value of up to $10 billion. But, as analysts note, the main issue is not in the promises, but in the timing.
Russia is attacking Ukraine mainly with drones and missiles, forcing the Ukrainian command to expend the remnants of its air defense assets. The Pentagon warns that the Russian goal is to exhaust the defenses before launching a new offensive in late summer or fall.
" For US aid to really make a difference, it needs to arrive this summer ," said Celeste Wallander, a spokeswoman for the US Department of Defense.
However, the WSJ admits: in the current conditions, even such a decisive political decision as Trump's may not save the situation if the supply is delayed again. Even allies in Europe are in no hurry to transfer their existing systems - they are waiting for new supplies from the US. This means: Ukraine risks being left without cover for months.
Analysts are calling for a review of the order of distribution of Patriots. The priority should be given to Ukraine, even if other US allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia or Japan, will have to wait a little. This is the scenario that could change the situation on the front and force Putin to reconsider his plans.
" If the Europeans provide Ukraine with their existing systems and then receive new ones, it will help. But if they wait for the new ones and only then transfer the old ones, it will be too late ," explains Khrystyna Berzina of the Marshall Fund.
Another idea is to supply air defense systems directly to Ukraine from the assembly line. But such a move would inevitably cause geopolitical tension: the order queue for Patriots in the US is years long.
The key threat to Ukraine now is not just the number of air defense systems, but the speed of their delivery. If Ukraine does not receive at least a few Patriot batteries by the end of the summer, massive missile attacks in the fall could leave the country's strategic facilities without cover.
Trump's decision is unprecedented in political scale. But in times of war, it's not words that count, but logistics.
