The only real leverage left to Russian President Vladimir Putin is an attempt to drive a wedge into relations between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. However, the American leader is now much less susceptible to Kremlin manipulation than he was a few weeks ago, according to Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a columnist for the British newspaper The Telegraph.
According to him, for the first time in many years, there are real grounds for cautious optimism, and 2026 may bring Ukraine a just and lasting peace. The analyst notes that Donald Trump's statements about the readiness of a peace agreement with Ukraine by 95 percent probably caused panic in Moscow.
This response, Bretton-Gordon notes, has been in the Kremlin’s traditional form of brutal disinformation and weak narratives. He cites as an example the claim that dozens of drones attacked one of Putin’s palaces, which American intelligence assessed was almost certainly a false flag operation.
The analyst emphasizes that such actions are a clumsy attempt to disrupt the peace process, which is rapidly slipping out of the Kremlin’s control. At the same time, what is becoming increasingly dangerous for the Russian authorities is that even within the country, the population is beginning to doubt the official versions of events. According to Bretton-Gordon, the destruction of propaganda from within often becomes a harbinger of the collapse of regimes.
The worst-case scenario for Putin, according to the columnist, is to maintain unity between Washington and Kyiv. While Trump's peace plan may not be ideal for Ukraine, it looks much more dangerous for Moscow. Of particular concern to the Kremlin is the fact that the proposed 15-year security guarantees from the US and NATO actually mean long-term protection of Ukraine according to Alliance standards.
An even more alarming signal for Moscow is the public discussion of the possibility of Western troops being deployed on Ukrainian territory. Bretton-Gordon notes that no propaganda campaign, even the most powerful, could present such an outcome as anything other than a strategic defeat for Russia.
The economic consequences of a possible peaceful settlement also look extremely unfavorable for Russia. With the front line frozen, it is the US, not the Kremlin, that will negotiate with Ukraine over access to rare earth mineral deposits in Donbas. Added to this is the possibility of reparations and the risk of the seizure of frozen Russian assets worth about $200 billion.
The analyst also draws attention to two key factors that strengthen Washington's position. First, Moscow is increasingly aware that the Russian army is unable to confront NATO even without direct US participation. Second, the fall in oil prices below $60 per barrel is significantly reducing the financial capabilities that fuel the Russian military machine.
Bretton-Gordon stresses that fears of nuclear escalation remain, but the Kremlin's traditional nuclear threats have all but disappeared in recent weeks. He says Moscow understands that nuclear rattling no longer impresses European leaders.
The observer believes that, subject to further pressure from the United States and the simultaneous restoration of the real military capabilities of European NATO countries, 2026 could be a turning point and bring Ukraine a just and stable peace.
