In 2024, about 500,000 people left Ukraine, and according to forecasts by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), this number will increase by another 200,000 in 2025. According to the NBU Inflation Report, although some return of migrants is expected in the coming years, the total number of those who will return to their homeland will be significantly smaller due to their adaptation to life abroad.
The National Bank notes that high security risks, constant shelling and destruction, and persistent deficits negatively affect the quality of life of Ukrainians, which leads to further external migration.
“During 2024, the outflow of migrants from Ukraine continued and totaled about 0.5 million people per year, which was in line with the NBU’s estimates… In 2025, the net outflow of external migrants is expected to continue (about 0.2 million people),” the report states.
According to the NBU forecasts, a positive migration balance is expected in Ukraine from 2026 - about 200 thousand people will return. In 2027, this process may accelerate, and the number of those returning will reach 500 thousand.
